Derby County vs Oxford United Prediction — Model Probabilities
Derby County v Oxford United — Team-Based Signals
Derby County vs Oxford United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Derby County 1-0 Oxford United — Actual Match Statistics
Derby County squeezed past Oxford United 1-0.
As we said in the preview, our model had Derby County as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
No strong lean on goals — the model had over 2.5 at 47% and both teams to score at 51%, coin-flips both.
By the numbers, possession split 66% to 34% in Derby County's favour, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 1.03 to 0.66.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.33 a game for Derby County against 1.33 for Oxford United.
Derby County vs Oxford United Result & Final Score
Derby County 1 - 0 Oxford United in the England - Championship on 18/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Derby County vs Oxford United Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Derby County win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Derby County 49%, draw 27%, Oxford United 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Derby County), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.