Derby County 0-0 Oxford United — Result, Stats & Model Review (England - Championship, 11 Feb 2025)

Derby County

0-0 HT 0-0

Oxford United

📅11/02/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3

Top 2 Score Predictions

1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗

England - Championship – 2024/2025

Derby County vs Oxford United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions

Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend

⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.

Match Result

Home

41%

2.09

Draw

28%

3.04

Away

31%

3.34

Under/Over 2.5

Under 2.5 OUR CALL

65%

1.48

Over 2.5

35%

2.51

Both Teams to Score

Yes

38%

2.13

62%

1.63

Total Goals

0-1 Goal

36%

2.16

2-3 Goals

42%

1.77

4-5 Goals

15%

5.36

6+ Goals

34.5

Half Time / Full Time

1/1

18%

3.11

1/2

34.5

1/X

14.5

X/1

16%

4.49

X/2

15%

6.77

X/X

15%

3.63

2/1

33.0

2/2

10%

5.79

2/X

15.35

PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine

Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline

◎

Our call

Under 2.5 — 65% ✓

Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.

STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.

Model vs Market — where we differ

iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers

41%

Home Win

44%

-2.6pp

27%

Draw

29%

-2.0pp

31%

Away Win

27%

+4.6pp

65%

Under 2.5

64%

+1.1pp

35%

Over 2.5

36%

-1.1pp

38%

BTTS Yes

43%

-4.7pp

62%

BTTS No

57%

+4.7pp

gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Derby County v Oxford United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine

iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals

HOME Derby County EU Bookmakers 48%

Head to Head

AWAY Oxford United EU Bookmakers 30%

+4% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%

1.34/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.56/0.55

+4% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -55% / +39%

52% Ball Possession 48%

12 Total Shots 10

4 Shots on Target 3

5 Corners 4

290 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 72%

23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4

19.9 Crosses 16.7

1.6 Yellow Cards 2.3

Derby County vs Oxford United Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings

Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings

HOME Derby County

3W-1D-1L

AWAY Oxford United

1.80 Avg Goals (FT) 1.40

1.29 xG 0.86

53% Ball Possession 47%

14 Total Shots 11

4 Shots on Target 5

10 Corners 4

308 Passes 276

71% Pass Accuracy 73%

23 Box Touches 15

27 Crosses 12

4 Yellow Cards 2

The Meetings

22.10.2024 Oxford United

1-1 HT 1-0

Derby County İNCL

29.12.2023 Oxford United

2-3 HT 2-1

Derby County İN1

15.08.2023 Derby County

1-2 HT 0-1

Oxford United İN1

11.03.2023 Oxford United

2-3 HT 1-2

Derby County İN1

30.07.2022 Derby County

1-0 HT 0-0

Oxford United İN1

Derby County 0-0 Oxford United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result

Real recorded figures from this match

HOME Derby County

0-0

AWAY Oxford United

0.85 xG 0.27

58% Ball Possession 42%

14 Total Shots 6

4 Shots on Target 1

3 Corners 4

392 Passes 277

82% Pass Accuracy 77%

17 Box Touches 12

23 Crosses 12

1 Yellow Cards 0

POST-MATCH Derby County vs Oxford United

iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Derby County and Oxford United fought out a 0-0 stalemate. Neither side could find a way through.

Our pre-match lean was Derby County at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (62%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Derby County had 58% of the ball to Oxford United's 42%, shots finished 14-6, expected goals 0.85 to 0.27.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Derby County had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.80 goals for Derby County and 1.40 for Oxford United.

What was the final score of Derby County vs Oxford United?

Derby County 0-0 Oxford United in the England - Championship on 11/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Derby County vs Oxford United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Derby County win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Derby County 41%, draw 27%, Oxford United 31%. The final score 0-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Derby County) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Derby County) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No

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