Portsmouth 2-1 Cardiff City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 11 Feb 2025

Portsmouth
2-1 HT 2-1
Cardiff City
📅11/02/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
England - Championship – 2024/2025

Portsmouth vs Cardiff City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.05
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
29%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
58%
1.74
Over 2.5
42%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.82
No
56%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.83
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
3.85
6+ Goals
9%
17.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.83 — our 31% vs market 28.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.96
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.05
X/1
12%
4.79
X/2
15%
6.97
X/X
11%
4.29
2/1
9%
27.0
2/2
8%
5.29
2/X
8%
13.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Under 2.5 — 58% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
45%
-0.6pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.1pp
29%
Away Win
27%
+1.8pp
58%
Under 2.5
54%
+4.2pp
42%
Over 2.5
46%
-4.2pp
44%
BTTS Yes
51%
-6.7pp
56%
BTTS No
49%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Portsmouth v Cardiff City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Portsmouth EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Cardiff City EU Bookmakers 31%
-11% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +0%
1.18/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.32
-81% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +13%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
288 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 73%
32.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
49.0 Crosses 15.6
0.0 Yellow Cards 2.0

Portsmouth vs Cardiff City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Portsmouth
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Cardiff City
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.31 xG 2.07
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 8
260 Passes 396
76% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 30
14 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
22.10.2024 Cardiff City Cardiff City 2-0 HT 2-0 Portsmouth Portsmouth İNCL
09.08.2022 Cardiff City Cardiff City 0-3 HT 0-0 Portsmouth Portsmouth İNLK
08.08.2017 Cardiff City Cardiff City 1-1 HT 0-1 Portsmouth Portsmouth İNLK
21.01.2012 Cardiff City Cardiff City 3-2 HT 1-1 Portsmouth Portsmouth İNCL
27.08.2011 Portsmouth Portsmouth 1-1 HT 0-0 Cardiff City Cardiff City İNCL
16.04.2011 Cardiff City Cardiff City 3-0 HT 2-0 Portsmouth Portsmouth İNCL

Portsmouth 2-1 Cardiff City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Portsmouth
2-1
AWAY Cardiff City
1.56 xG 0.83
41% Ball Possession 59%
19 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 6
10 Corners 4
149 Passes 257
57% Pass Accuracy 66%
23 Box Touches 24
18 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Portsmouth vs Cardiff City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Portsmouth squeezed past Cardiff City 2-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Portsmouth as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Portsmouth had 41% of the ball to Cardiff City's 59%, shots finished 19-12, expected goals 1.56 to 0.83.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cardiff City led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Portsmouth and 1.67 for Cardiff City.

What was the final score of Portsmouth vs Cardiff City?

Portsmouth 2-1 Cardiff City in the England - Championship on 11/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Portsmouth vs Cardiff City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Portsmouth win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Portsmouth 44%, draw 27%, Cardiff City 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Portsmouth) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Portsmouth) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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