Oxford United vs Derby County Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Oxford United v Derby County — Team-Based Signals
Oxford United vs Derby County Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings
2-3
HT 2-1
Derby County
İN1
1-2
HT 0-1
Oxford United
İN1
2-3
HT 1-2
Derby County
İN1
1-0
HT 0-0
Oxford United
İN1
Oxford United 1-1 Derby County — Actual Match Statistics
Oxford United and Derby County couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
Our pre-match lean was Oxford United at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Oxford United had 51% of the ball to Derby County's 49%, shots finished 11-17, expected goals 0.45 to 1.15.
For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Derby County led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Oxford United and 2.00 for Derby County.
What was the final score of Oxford United vs Derby County?
Oxford United 1-1 Derby County in the England - Championship on 22/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Oxford United vs Derby County?
Before kick-off our model rated a Oxford United win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Oxford United 42%, draw 27%, Derby County 31%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Oxford United), BTTS No went the other way.