Oxford United vs Derby County Prediction — Model Probabilities
Oxford United v Derby County — Team-Based Signals
Oxford United vs Derby County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Oxford United 1-0 Derby County — Actual Match Statistics
Oxford United edged past Derby County 1-0.
The model refused to pick a side here (35% / 32% / 33%); Oxford United picked one for it. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), and that read landed as well.
By the numbers, Oxford United had 49% of the ball to Derby County's 51%, shots finished 19-6, expected goals 2.17 to 0.21 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Oxford United's control.
The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Derby County led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Oxford United and 1.50 for Derby County.
Oxford United vs Derby County Result & Final Score
Oxford United 1 - 0 Derby County in the England - Championship on 18/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Oxford United vs Derby County Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Oxford United win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Oxford United 35%, draw 32%, Derby County 33%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Oxford United), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.