MSV Duisburg 3-1 Hoffenheim II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 18 Apr 2026

MSV Duisburg
3-1 HT 1-1
Hoffenheim II
📅18/04/2026 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✓
Germany - 3rd Division – 2025/2026

MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.72
Draw
20%
3.8
Away
27%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.33
Over 2.5
62%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
64%
1.56
No
36%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.61
2-3 Goals
37%
1.89
4-5 Goals
27%
2.72
6+ Goals
16%
7.28
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.17
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
7%
13.65
X/1
23%
4.46
X/2
7%
9.06
X/X
7%
6.1
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
19.8
2/2
12%
6.41
2/X
7%
14.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.8 — our 10% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
54%
-1.0pp
20%
Draw
23%
-2.7pp
27%
Away Win
23%
+3.6pp
38%
Under 2.5
39%
-1.2pp
62%
Over 2.5
61%
+1.2pp
64%
BTTS Yes
60%
+4.3pp
36%
BTTS No
40%
-4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

MSV Duisburg v Hoffenheim II — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME MSV Duisburg EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Hoffenheim II EU Bookmakers 26%
+6% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +16%
1.78/0.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.14/1.58
-6% / +48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +83% / +4%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
303 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 78%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
19.6 Crosses 11.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.7

MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME MSV Duisburg
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Hoffenheim II
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 4.00
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 4
322 Passes 480
78% Pass Accuracy 89%
18 Crosses 12
0 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
21.11.2025 Hoffenheim II Hoffenheim II 4-1 HT 4-0 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg AL3

MSV Duisburg 3-1 Hoffenheim II — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME MSV Duisburg
3-1
AWAY Hoffenheim II
41% Ball Possession 59%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
300 Passes 457
76% Pass Accuracy 82%
15 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

MSV Duisburg saw off Hoffenheim II 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had MSV Duisburg as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (64%) came in.

On the day, MSV Duisburg had 41% of the ball to Hoffenheim II's 59%, shots finished 13-9.

What was the final score of MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II?

MSV Duisburg 3-1 Hoffenheim II in the Germany - 3rd Division on 18/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II?

Before kick-off our model rated a MSV Duisburg win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split MSV Duisburg 53%, draw 20%, Hoffenheim II 27%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (MSV Duisburg), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (MSV Duisburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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