Yverdon 3-1 Luzern — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 18 May 2024

📅18/05/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.57
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
36%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.51
Over 2.5
56%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.43
No
46%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.58
2-3 Goals
37%
2.02
4-5 Goals
28%
2.64
6+ Goals
13%
6.29
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.84
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
22.3
1/X
7%
12.45
X/1
13%
6.54
X/2
12%
5.51
X/X
9%
5.84
2/1
6%
25.5
2/2
16%
3.03
2/X
8%
12.35
Value flag · 1/2 at 22.3 — our 7% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
35%
+5.8pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.9pp
36%
Away Win
41%
-4.9pp
44%
Under 2.5
36%
+8.3pp
56%
Over 2.5
64%
-8.3pp
54%
BTTS Yes
66%
-11.7pp
46%
BTTS No
34%
+11.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Yverdon EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Luzern EU Bookmakers 45%
+2% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +2%
1.52/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.86/1.31
-12% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +5%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
308 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 77%
24.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.8
17.4 Crosses 19.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Yverdon
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Luzern
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.41 xG 1.55
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
311 Passes 332
80% Pass Accuracy 81%
20 Box Touches 28
14 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.04.2024 Luzern Luzern 1-0 HT 1-0 Yverdon Yverdon İSV
23.01.2024 Yverdon Yverdon 2-1 HT 1-0 Luzern Luzern İSV
22.10.2023 Luzern Luzern 2-1 HT 1-0 Yverdon Yverdon İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Yverdon
3-1
AWAY Luzern
1.75 xG 1.30
41% Ball Possession 59%
18 Total Shots 17
8 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
247 Passes 373
79% Pass Accuracy 83%
26 Box Touches 24
19 Crosses 25
4 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Yverdon vs Luzern
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Yverdon beat Luzern 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (41% / 24% / 36%) promised a tight game; Yverdon found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Yverdon had 41% of the ball to Luzern's 59%, shots finished 18-17, expected goals 1.75 to 1.30.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Luzern led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Yverdon and 1.33 for Luzern.

What was the final score of Yverdon vs Luzern?

Yverdon 3-1 Luzern in the Switzerland - Super League on 18/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Yverdon vs Luzern?

Before kick-off our model rated a Yverdon win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Yverdon 41%, draw 24%, Luzern 36%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Yverdon), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Yverdon) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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