Aarhus Fremad 2-0 Esbjerg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - 2nd Division, 18 May 2024

📅18/05/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.67
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
39%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.18
Over 2.5
51%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.5
No
49%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.44
2-3 Goals
37%
1.89
4-5 Goals
24%
2.93
6+ Goals
13%
8.62
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.44 — our 26% vs market 17.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
10%
X/2
16%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
16%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
34%
+1.3pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.5pp
38%
Away Win
39%
-0.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
42%
+6.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
58%
-6.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
62%
-11.1pp
49%
BTTS No
38%
+11.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aarhus Fremad EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Esbjerg EU Bookmakers 43%
+15% / +23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
1.94/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/0.97
+53% / +54% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -34% / +37%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
278 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 0.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aarhus Fremad
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Esbjerg
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 1
26.04.2024 Esbjerg Esbjerg 0-1 HT 0-1 Aarhus Fremad Aarhus Fremad DAN2
24.03.2024 Esbjerg Esbjerg 2-2 HT 1-1 Aarhus Fremad Aarhus Fremad DAN2
14.10.2023 Aarhus Fremad Aarhus Fremad 2-4 HT 1-3 Esbjerg Esbjerg DAN2
21.05.2023 Esbjerg Esbjerg 3-1 HT 0-1 Aarhus Fremad Aarhus Fremad DAN2
14.05.2023 Aarhus Fremad Aarhus Fremad 1-3 HT 0-3 Esbjerg Esbjerg DAN2
05.03.2023 Esbjerg Esbjerg 0-2 HT 0-1 Aarhus Fremad Aarhus Fremad DAN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aarhus Fremad
2-0
AWAY Esbjerg
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Aarhus Fremad vs Esbjerg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aarhus Fremad saw off Esbjerg 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 26% / 38% — and on the day Aarhus Fremad made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Aarhus Fremad had 43% of the ball to Esbjerg's 57%, shots finished 8-12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Esbjerg led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Aarhus Fremad and 2.00 for Esbjerg.

What was the final score of Aarhus Fremad vs Esbjerg?

Aarhus Fremad 2-0 Esbjerg in the Denmark - 2nd Division on 18/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aarhus Fremad vs Esbjerg?

Before kick-off our model rated an Esbjerg win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Aarhus Fremad 35%, draw 26%, Esbjerg 38%. The final score 2-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Esbjerg) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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