Naesby 3-2 Holbaek — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - 3rd Division, 18 May 2024

📅18/05/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.92
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
33%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.21
Over 2.5
50%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.53
No
49%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
16%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
48%
-6.4pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.5pp
33%
Away Win
26%
+6.9pp
50%
Under 2.5
41%
+8.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
59%
-8.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
61%
-10.3pp
49%
BTTS No
39%
+10.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Naesby EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Holbaek EU Bookmakers 30%
-21% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
1.35/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.80/0.78
-24% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -36% / +117%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
360 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 349 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.1 Yellow Cards 0.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Naesby
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Holbaek
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 0
27.04.2024 Holbaek Holbaek 3-2 HT 2-2 Naesby Naesby DAN3
10.03.2024 Naesby Naesby 0-3 HT 0-0 Holbaek Holbaek DAN3
14.10.2023 Holbaek Holbaek 2-3 HT 1-0 Naesby Naesby DAN3
03.04.2021 Holbaek Holbaek 0-2 HT 0-2 Naesby Naesby DAN2
03.10.2020 Naesby Naesby 2-2 HT 0-1 Holbaek Holbaek DAN2
24.06.2020 Naesby Naesby 1-1 HT 1-1 Holbaek Holbaek DAN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Naesby
3-2
AWAY Holbaek
58% Ball Possession 42%
20 Total Shots 8
14 Shots on Target 4
13 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Naesby vs Holbaek
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Naesby squeezed past Holbaek 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Naesby as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Naesby had 58% of the ball to Holbaek's 42%, shots finished 20-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Naesby and 1.83 for Holbaek.

What was the final score of Naesby vs Holbaek?

Naesby 3-2 Holbaek in the Denmark - 3rd Division on 18/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Naesby vs Holbaek?

Before kick-off our model rated a Naesby win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Naesby 42%, draw 25%, Holbaek 33%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Naesby), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Naesby) ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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