Kagoshima United 0-3 V-Varen Nagasaki — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 18 May 2024

📅18/05/2024 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.29
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
44%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.1
Over 2.5
49%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.61
No
54%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.04
2-3 Goals
42%
1.84
4-5 Goals
19%
3.1
6+ Goals
10%
9.99
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.04 — our 29% vs market 19.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
4%
1/X
14%
X/1
10%
X/2
12%
X/X
4%
2/1
4%
2/2
27%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
27%
+4.9pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.1pp
44%
Away Win
49%
-5.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
58%
-11.6pp
54%
BTTS No
42%
+11.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kagoshima United EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY V-Varen Nagasaki EU Bookmakers 52%
-15% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +20% / +17%
0.82/1.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.87/0.77
-21% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +34% / +42%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
312 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 379 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kagoshima United
0W-0D-2L
AWAY V-Varen Nagasaki
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 3
01.06.2022 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 1-0 HT 1-0 Kagoshima United Kagoshima United JPK
27.07.2019 Kagoshima United Kagoshima United 1-2 HT 0-2 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kagoshima United
0-3
AWAY V-Varen Nagasaki
48% Ball Possession 52%
6 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 7
8 Corners 7
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Kagoshima United vs V-Varen Nagasaki
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

V-Varen Nagasaki cruised past Kagoshima United 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had V-Varen Nagasaki as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Kagoshima United had 48% of the ball to V-Varen Nagasaki's 52%, shots finished 6-17.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, V-Varen Nagasaki led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Kagoshima United and 1.50 for V-Varen Nagasaki.

What was the final score of Kagoshima United vs V-Varen Nagasaki?

Kagoshima United 0-3 V-Varen Nagasaki in the Japan - J2 League on 18/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kagoshima United vs V-Varen Nagasaki?

Before kick-off our model rated an V-Varen Nagasaki win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Kagoshima United 32%, draw 24%, V-Varen Nagasaki 44%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (V-Varen Nagasaki), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (V-Varen Nagasaki) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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