Matsumoto Yamaga 1-0 Gainare Tottori — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J3 League, 18 May 2025

📅18/05/2025 · 🕒07:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.9
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
32%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.82
Over 2.5
49%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.76
No
48%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
10%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
17%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
48%
-8.4pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.6pp
32%
Away Win
25%
+6.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
51%
-0.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
49%
+0.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.9pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Gainare Tottori EU Bookmakers 29%
+4% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -14%
1.58/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.74
+2% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -23%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
340 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 240 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
25.1 Crosses 14.4
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Gainare Tottori
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
460 Passes 265
84% Pass Accuracy 74%
29 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 2
20.10.2024 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 3-4 HT 1-1 Gainare Tottori Gainare Tottori JAP3
08.06.2024 Gainare Tottori Gainare Tottori 0-4 HT 0-2 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP3
05.08.2023 Gainare Tottori Gainare Tottori 2-1 HT 2-0 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP3
02.04.2023 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 0-0 HT 0-0 Gainare Tottori Gainare Tottori JAP3
18.09.2022 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 2-1 HT 2-0 Gainare Tottori Gainare Tottori JAP3
05.06.2022 Gainare Tottori Gainare Tottori 0-0 HT 0-0 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga
1-0
AWAY Gainare Tottori
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 3
4 Shots on Target 0
4 Corners 1
302 Passes 427
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
10 Crosses 6
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Matsumoto Yamaga vs Gainare Tottori
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Matsumoto Yamaga edged past Gainare Tottori 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 28% / 32% — and on the day Matsumoto Yamaga made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Matsumoto Yamaga had 43% of the ball to Gainare Tottori's 57%, shots finished 11-3.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Matsumoto Yamaga and 1.17 for Gainare Tottori.

What was the final score of Matsumoto Yamaga vs Gainare Tottori?

Matsumoto Yamaga 1-0 Gainare Tottori in the Japan - J3 League on 18/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Gainare Tottori?

Before kick-off our model rated a Matsumoto Yamaga win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Matsumoto Yamaga 40%, draw 28%, Gainare Tottori 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Matsumoto Yamaga), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Matsumoto Yamaga) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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