Cracovia Krakow 3-1 Legia Varşova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 18 May 2025

📅18/05/2025 · 🕒15:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.53
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
43%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.1
Over 2.5
59%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.56
No
42%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.91
2-3 Goals
34%
1.82
4-5 Goals
27%
2.97
6+ Goals
17%
9.24
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.97
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
25.0
1/X
6%
12.8
X/1
10%
6.26
X/2
10%
5.68
X/X
11%
5.23
2/1
6%
27.0
2/2
25%
3.41
2/X
8%
12.65
Value flag · 1/2 at 25.0 — our 8% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
36%
-3.3pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.8pp
43%
Away Win
39%
+4.1pp
41%
Under 2.5
44%
-3.1pp
59%
Over 2.5
56%
+3.1pp
58%
BTTS Yes
60%
-2.3pp
42%
BTTS No
40%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cracovia Krakow EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Legia Varşova EU Bookmakers 43%
+3% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
1.37/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.52/1.18
+8% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +2%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
309 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 80%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.4
19.7 Crosses 21.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cracovia Krakow
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Legia Varşova
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.34 xG 1.81
37% Ball Possession 64%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
209 Passes 418
69% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 30
12 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 3
23.11.2024 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 3-2 HT 3-1 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow POL
20.12.2023 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow 2-0 HT 1-0 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
17.12.2023 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 2-0 HT 0-0 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow POL
12.02.2023 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 2-2 HT 0-1 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow POL
29.07.2022 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow 3-0 HT 1-0 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
21.05.2022 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 3-0 HT 0-0 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cracovia Krakow
3-1
AWAY Legia Varşova
2.73 xG 1.15
45% Ball Possession 55%
19 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 1
271 Passes 357
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
21 Box Touches 28
21 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Varşova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cracovia Krakow got the better of Legia Varşova 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Legia Varşova at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Cracovia Krakow had 45% of the ball to Legia Varşova's 55%, shots finished 19-12, expected goals 2.73 to 1.15.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Legia Varşova led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.67 for Legia Varşova.

What was the final score of Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Varşova?

Cracovia Krakow 3-1 Legia Varşova in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 18/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Varşova?

Before kick-off our model rated an Legia Varşova win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Cracovia Krakow 33%, draw 25%, Legia Varşova 43%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Legia Varşova) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Legia Varşova) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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