Motor Lublin 1-0 Zaglebie Lubin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 18 May 2025

Motor Lublin
1-0 HT 1-0
Zaglebie Lubin
📅18/05/2025 · 🕒13:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✓
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2024/2025

Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.92
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
37%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.1
Over 2.5
51%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.6
No
50%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.91
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals
23%
2.97
6+ Goals
11%
9.24
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.91 — our 27% vs market 19.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
2.66
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
7%
12.3
X/1
19%
5.0
X/2
11%
7.96
X/X
10%
5.17
2/1
6%
22.9
2/2
18%
5.52
2/X
7%
13.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
48%
-7.4pp
23%
Draw
26%
-2.9pp
36%
Away Win
26%
+10.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.7pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.6pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Motor Lublin v Zaglebie Lubin — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Motor Lublin EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Zaglebie Lubin EU Bookmakers 30%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +5%
1.06/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.68
-19% / +91% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -1%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
342 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 77%
18.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
19.2 Crosses 17.8
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.1

Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Motor Lublin
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Zaglebie Lubin
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
2.80 xG 0.99
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 18
6 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 4
275 Passes 386
74% Pass Accuracy 79%
35 Box Touches 26
22 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
22.11.2024 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 1-2 HT 0-1 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin POL
19.10.2022 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin 1-0 HT 0-0 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POLK

Motor Lublin 1-0 Zaglebie Lubin — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Motor Lublin
1-0
AWAY Zaglebie Lubin
1.81 xG 0.84
46% Ball Possession 54%
17 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 7
300 Passes 351
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
33 Box Touches 23
16 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Motor Lublin edged past Zaglebie Lubin 1-0.

Our pre-match split (40% / 23% / 36%) promised a tight game; Motor Lublin found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Motor Lublin had 46% of the ball to Zaglebie Lubin's 54%, shots finished 17-16, expected goals 1.81 to 0.84.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Motor Lublin had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Motor Lublin and 0.50 for Zaglebie Lubin.

What was the final score of Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin?

Motor Lublin 1-0 Zaglebie Lubin in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 18/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Motor Lublin win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Motor Lublin 40%, draw 23%, Zaglebie Lubin 36%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Motor Lublin) — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Motor Lublin) ✗ Over 2.5
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