Katowice 2-2 Lech Poznan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 18 May 2025

📅18/05/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
4.48
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
46%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.18
Over 2.5
48%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.68
No
52%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
11%
X/2
20%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
19%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
19%
+10.4pp
24%
Draw
23%
+1.0pp
46%
Away Win
58%
-11.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
42%
+10.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
58%
-10.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
56%
-8.0pp
52%
BTTS No
44%
+8.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Katowice EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Lech Poznan EU Bookmakers 62%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -22%
1.37/1.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.18
+20% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -7%
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
280 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 400 · 83%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.2
24.9 Crosses 23.0
0.6 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Katowice
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Lech Poznan
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.83 xG 2.65
39% Ball Possession 61%
16 Total Shots 26
2 Shots on Target 13
3 Corners 6
294 Passes 506
80% Pass Accuracy 88%
17 Box Touches 43
16 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 0
23.11.2024 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 2-0 HT 1-0 Katowice Katowice POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Katowice
2-2
AWAY Lech Poznan
1.62 xG 1.92
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 24
4 Shots on Target 9
5 Corners 9
263 Passes 428
78% Pass Accuracy 87%
24 Box Touches 35
19 Crosses 33
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Katowice vs Lech Poznan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Katowice and Lech Poznan shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Lech Poznan at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Katowice had 41% of the ball to Lech Poznan's 59%, shots finished 10-24, expected goals 1.62 to 1.92.

What was the final score of Katowice vs Lech Poznan?

Katowice 2-2 Lech Poznan in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 18/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Katowice vs Lech Poznan?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lech Poznan win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Katowice 30%, draw 24%, Lech Poznan 46%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Lech Poznan) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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