Mallorca 1-1 Real Madrid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 18 Aug 2024

Mallorca
1-1 HT 0-1
Real Madrid
📅18/08/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-2 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2024/2025

Mallorca vs Real Madrid Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
5.91
Draw
28%
4.34
Away
49%
1.41
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
2.03
Over 2.5
43%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.96
No
53%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.85
2-3 Goals
42%
1.83
4-5 Goals
22%
3.19
6+ Goals
8%
10.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.85 — our 28% vs market 20.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
12.5
1/2
6%
23.15
1/X
7%
20.55
X/1
5%
15.2
X/2
20%
3.46
X/X
11%
6.41
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
24%
1.68
2/X
9%
19.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
14%
+9.0pp
28%
Draw
20%
+8.0pp
50%
Away Win
66%
-16.9pp
57%
Under 2.5
45%
+11.2pp
43%
Over 2.5
55%
-11.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
+0.2pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Mallorca v Real Madrid — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mallorca EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Madrid EU Bookmakers 71%
+5% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -1%
0.73/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.86/1.06
-23% / +47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +3%
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
260 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 427 · 80%
14.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.4
17.0 Crosses 17.1
3.7 Yellow Cards 1.8

Mallorca vs Real Madrid Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mallorca
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Real Madrid
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.78 xG 1.96
36% Ball Possession 64%
9 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 5
256 Passes 536
79% Pass Accuracy 90%
13 Box Touches 34
16 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
13.04.2024 Mallorca Mallorca 0-1 HT 0-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
03.01.2024 Real Madrid Real Madrid 1-0 HT 0-0 Mallorca Mallorca İS1
05.02.2023 Mallorca Mallorca 1-0 HT 1-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
11.09.2022 Real Madrid Real Madrid 4-1 HT 1-1 Mallorca Mallorca İS1
14.03.2022 Mallorca Mallorca 0-3 HT 0-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
22.09.2021 Real Madrid Real Madrid 6-1 HT 3-1 Mallorca Mallorca İS1

Mallorca 1-1 Real Madrid — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mallorca
1-1
AWAY Real Madrid
1.03 xG 0.60
34% Ball Possession 66%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 7
267 Passes 598
83% Pass Accuracy 90%
18 Box Touches 38
24 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Mallorca vs Real Madrid
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mallorca and Real Madrid shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Real Madrid at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Mallorca had 34% of the ball to Real Madrid's 66%, shots finished 12-13, expected goals 1.03 to 0.60.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Madrid led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Mallorca and 2.50 for Real Madrid.

What was the final score of Mallorca vs Real Madrid?

Mallorca 1-1 Real Madrid in the Spain - Primera Liga on 18/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mallorca vs Real Madrid?

Before kick-off our model rated an Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Mallorca 23%, draw 28%, Real Madrid 50%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Real Madrid), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Real Madrid) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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