Burgos 3-1 Cartagena — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 18 Aug 2024

📅18/08/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.76
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
25%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.56
Over 2.5
37%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.16
No
63%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2.38
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
16%
5.07
6+ Goals
7%
30.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.38
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
5%
15.85
X/1
19%
3.77
X/2
8%
9.09
X/X
12%
3.98
2/1
7%
30.0
2/2
10%
8.1
2/X
10%
16.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
53%
-5.2pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.4pp
25%
Away Win
20%
+4.8pp
62%
Under 2.5
60%
+2.3pp
38%
Over 2.5
40%
-2.3pp
37%
BTTS Yes
42%
-5.5pp
63%
BTTS No
58%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Burgos EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Cartagena EU Bookmakers 23%
-21% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +13%
1.52/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.52
+13% / -42% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -1%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
342 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 76%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.9
26.7 Crosses 17.6
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Burgos
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Cartagena
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
0.99 xG 0.89
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
289 Passes 362
75% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.03.2024 Burgos Burgos 3-0 HT 1-0 Cartagena Cartagena İS2
16.12.2023 Cartagena Cartagena 0-3 HT 0-1 Burgos Burgos İS2
07.05.2023 Cartagena Cartagena 0-0 HT 0-0 Burgos Burgos İS2
04.09.2022 Burgos Burgos 1-0 HT 1-0 Cartagena Cartagena İS2
14.05.2022 Burgos Burgos 1-1 HT 1-0 Cartagena Cartagena İS2
21.11.2021 Cartagena Cartagena 1-0 HT 0-0 Burgos Burgos İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Burgos
3-1
AWAY Cartagena
2.54 xG 1.37
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
314 Passes 220
77% Pass Accuracy 73%
25 Box Touches 16
14 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Burgos vs Cartagena
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Burgos got the better of Cartagena 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Burgos as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (63%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Burgos had 56% of the ball to Cartagena's 44%, shots finished 12-10, expected goals 2.54 to 1.37.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Burgos had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Burgos and 0.33 for Cartagena.

What was the final score of Burgos vs Cartagena?

Burgos 3-1 Cartagena in the Spain - 2nd Division on 18/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Burgos vs Cartagena?

Before kick-off our model rated a Burgos win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Burgos 48%, draw 27%, Cartagena 25%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Burgos) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Burgos) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İS2 More Spain - 2nd Division
18 Aug 2024
18:00 Sporting Gijon vs Levante Analysis →
18:00 Racing Santander vs Almeria Analysis →
20:30 Elche vs Huesca Analysis →