Lazio 3-1 Venezia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 18 Aug 2024

📅18/08/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.43
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
20%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.9
Over 2.5
49%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.09
No
56%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.3
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.58
6+ Goals
9%
14.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.3 — our 26% vs market 24.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.75
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
19.4
X/1
17%
3.42
X/2
9%
14.35
X/X
9%
5.7
2/1
8%
24.85
2/2
6%
12.35
2/X
8%
20.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
66%
-9.7pp
24%
Draw
21%
+3.0pp
20%
Away Win
13%
+6.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
49%
+2.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
51%
-2.6pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
+0.3pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lazio EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Venezia EU Bookmakers 16%
+1% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +9%
1.64/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.67/1.93
+5% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +16%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
403 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 74%
27.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.0
18.4 Crosses 12.1
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lazio
3W-1D-0L
AWAY Venezia
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
1.39 xG 0.62
60% Ball Possession 40%
8 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
557 Passes 356
88% Pass Accuracy 84%
24 Box Touches 18
15 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
14.03.2022 Lazio Lazio 1-0 HT 0-0 Venezia Venezia İTA
22.12.2021 Venezia Venezia 1-3 HT 1-1 Lazio Lazio İTA
03.03.2002 Lazio Lazio 4-2 HT 3-0 Venezia Venezia İTA
21.10.2001 Venezia Venezia 0-0 HT 0-0 Lazio Lazio İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lazio
3-1
AWAY Venezia
2.39 xG 0.62
67% Ball Possession 33%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
542 Passes 232
91% Pass Accuracy 81%
28 Box Touches 18
26 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lazio vs Venezia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lazio got the better of Venezia 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Lazio as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lazio had 67% of the ball to Venezia's 33%, shots finished 13-11, expected goals 2.39 to 0.62.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Lazio had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Lazio and 0.75 for Venezia.

What was the final score of Lazio vs Venezia?

Lazio 3-1 Venezia in the Italy - Serie A on 18/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lazio vs Venezia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lazio win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Lazio 56%, draw 24%, Venezia 20%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lazio) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lazio) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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