Hellas Verona 3-0 Napoli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 18 Aug 2024

Hellas Verona
3-0 HT 0-0
Napoli
📅18/08/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-2 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2024/2025

Hellas Verona vs Napoli Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
4.13
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
49%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.86
Over 2.5
48%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.82
No
53%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.29
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
3.58
6+ Goals
10%
14.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.29 — our 27% vs market 24.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
7.66
1/2
8%
24.45
1/X
5%
15.3
X/1
11%
9.69
X/2
14%
3.98
X/X
10%
4.84
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
28%
2.2
2/X
10%
14.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
21%
+4.2pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.8pp
49%
Away Win
54%
-5.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
50%
+1.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
50%
-1.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.4pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Hellas Verona v Napoli — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hellas Verona EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Napoli EU Bookmakers 58%
-5% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +0%
0.95/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.63/0.96
-3% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / +2%
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
284 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 459 · 84%
16.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.1
16.5 Crosses 17.1
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.8

Hellas Verona vs Napoli Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hellas Verona
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Napoli
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.88 xG 1.46
36% Ball Possession 64%
10 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
226 Passes 479
73% Pass Accuracy 85%
16 Box Touches 30
14 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
04.02.2024 Napoli Napoli 2-1 HT 0-0 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona İTA
21.10.2023 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona 1-3 HT 0-2 Napoli Napoli İTA
15.04.2023 Napoli Napoli 0-0 HT 0-0 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona İTA
15.08.2022 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona 2-5 HT 1-2 Napoli Napoli İTA
13.03.2022 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona 1-2 HT 0-1 Napoli Napoli İTA
07.11.2021 Napoli Napoli 1-1 HT 1-1 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona İTA

Hellas Verona 3-0 Napoli — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hellas Verona
3-0
AWAY Napoli
1.85 xG 0.96
33% Ball Possession 67%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 5
185 Passes 460
67% Pass Accuracy 84%
10 Box Touches 18
9 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Hellas Verona vs Napoli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hellas Verona ran out comfortable winners over Napoli 3-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Napoli at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Hellas Verona had 33% of the ball to Napoli's 67%, shots finished 9-14, expected goals 1.85 to 0.96.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Napoli led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Hellas Verona and 2.17 for Napoli.

What was the final score of Hellas Verona vs Napoli?

Hellas Verona 3-0 Napoli in the Italy - Serie A on 18/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hellas Verona vs Napoli?

Before kick-off our model rated an Napoli win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Hellas Verona 25%, draw 26%, Napoli 49%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Napoli), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Napoli) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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