South Melbourne 2-1 St. Albans Saints — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 18 Aug 2024

📅18/08/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.37
Draw
28%
4.62
Away
18%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.74
Over 2.5
56%
1.41
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
No
52%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
18%
X/2
5%
X/X
13%
2/1
13%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
68%
-13.7pp
28%
Draw
18%
+9.8pp
18%
Away Win
14%
+3.9pp
44%
Under 2.5
33%
+11.7pp
56%
Over 2.5
67%
-11.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME South Melbourne EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Albans Saints EU Bookmakers 17%
+7% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -2%
1.51/0.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.07
+1% / +67% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -35% / +6%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
393 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 234 · 69%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
23.2 Crosses 11.2
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME South Melbourne
6W-0D-0L
AWAY St. Albans Saints
3.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
55% Ball Possession 45%
18 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 6
306 Passes 144
72% Pass Accuracy 59%
22 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
12.05.2024 St. Albans Saints St. Albans Saints 1-4 HT 1-2 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
20.06.2023 South Melbourne South Melbourne 4-0 HT 4-0 St. Albans Saints St. Albans Saints AVNPL
26.03.2023 St. Albans Saints St. Albans Saints 0-1 HT 0-0 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
11.06.2022 South Melbourne South Melbourne 4-0 HT 2-0 St. Albans Saints St. Albans Saints AVNPL
13.03.2022 St. Albans Saints St. Albans Saints 1-4 HT 1-2 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
17.04.2021 South Melbourne South Melbourne 2-0 HT 1-0 St. Albans Saints St. Albans Saints AVNPL
POST-MATCH South Melbourne vs St. Albans Saints
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

South Melbourne edged past St. Albans Saints 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had South Melbourne as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, South Melbourne had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 3.17 goals for South Melbourne and 0.33 for St. Albans Saints.

What was the final score of South Melbourne vs St. Albans Saints?

South Melbourne 2-1 St. Albans Saints in the Australia - National Premier League on 18/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for South Melbourne vs St. Albans Saints?

Before kick-off our model rated a South Melbourne win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split South Melbourne 54%, draw 28%, St. Albans Saints 18%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (South Melbourne), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (South Melbourne) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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