Avarta 0-5 Naesby — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - 3rd Division, 18 Aug 2024

📅18/08/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.67
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
37%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.03
Over 2.5
51%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.61
No
44%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
16%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
34%
+4.4pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.5pp
37%
Away Win
41%
-4.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
45%
+3.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
55%
-3.3pp
56%
BTTS Yes
58%
-2.2pp
44%
BTTS No
42%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Avarta EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Naesby EU Bookmakers 45%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
0.90/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.67/1.36
-42% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +1%
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
366 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 382 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Avarta
0W-1D-3L
AWAY Naesby
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 1
25.05.2024 Naesby Naesby 5-1 HT 4-0 Avarta Avarta DAN3
12.05.2024 Avarta Avarta 1-3 HT 0-1 Naesby Naesby DAN3
06.04.2024 Avarta Avarta 2-4 HT 0-1 Naesby Naesby DAN3
19.08.2023 Naesby Naesby 0-0 HT 0-0 Avarta Avarta DAN3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Avarta
0-5
AWAY Naesby
48% Ball Possession 52%
16 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Avarta vs Naesby
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Naesby ran out comfortable winners over Avarta 5-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 25% / 37% — and on the day Naesby made the difference. The goals read — both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Avarta had 48% of the ball to Naesby's 52%, shots finished 16-17.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Naesby led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Avarta and 3.00 for Naesby.

What was the final score of Avarta vs Naesby?

Avarta 0-5 Naesby in the Denmark - 3rd Division on 18/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Avarta vs Naesby?

Before kick-off our model rated a Avarta win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Avarta 38%, draw 25%, Naesby 37%. The final score 0-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Avarta), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Avarta) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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