HNK Gorica 2-2 Osijek — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 18 Aug 2024

📅18/08/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.87
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
47%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.9
Over 2.5
48%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.81
No
52%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.34
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
23%
3.53
6+ Goals
9%
13.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.34 — our 28% vs market 24.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
14%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
26%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
22%
+3.6pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.0pp
48%
Away Win
53%
-5.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
49%
+2.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
51%
-2.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.2pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME HNK Gorica EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Osijek EU Bookmakers 57%
+5% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +7%
0.94/1.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/0.94
+0% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / +27%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
256 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 74%
16.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.6
17.6 Crosses 19.0
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME HNK Gorica
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Osijek
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.83 xG 1.34
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
243 Passes 371
69% Pass Accuracy 77%
13 Box Touches 25
13 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 1
28.04.2024 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 0-3 HT 0-1 Osijek Osijek HIR
18.02.2024 Osijek Osijek 3-0 HT 0-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
04.11.2023 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 3-0 HT 1-0 Osijek Osijek HIR
20.08.2023 Osijek Osijek 1-0 HT 1-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
08.04.2023 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 2-0 HT 0-0 Osijek Osijek HIR
29.01.2023 Osijek Osijek 2-0 HT 1-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME HNK Gorica
2-2
AWAY Osijek
1.62 xG 1.06
44% Ball Possession 56%
15 Total Shots 17
7 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
270 Passes 397
76% Pass Accuracy 85%
27 Box Touches 28
16 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH HNK Gorica vs Osijek
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

HNK Gorica and Osijek shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Osijek at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, HNK Gorica had 44% of the ball to Osijek's 56%, shots finished 15-17, expected goals 1.62 to 1.06.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Osijek led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for HNK Gorica and 1.50 for Osijek.

What was the final score of HNK Gorica vs Osijek?

HNK Gorica 2-2 Osijek in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 18/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for HNK Gorica vs Osijek?

Before kick-off our model rated an Osijek win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split HNK Gorica 26%, draw 27%, Osijek 48%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Osijek) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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