Rijeka 4-0 Istra 1961 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 18 Aug 2024

📅18/08/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.57
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
22%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.82
Over 2.5
49%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.96
No
57%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.16
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.71
6+ Goals
12%
15.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.16 — our 28% vs market 26.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
24%
X/2
10%
X/X
10%
2/1
9%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
60%
-4.2pp
23%
Draw
23%
-0.2pp
22%
Away Win
18%
+4.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
51%
+0.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
49%
-0.2pp
43%
BTTS Yes
47%
-4.2pp
57%
BTTS No
53%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rijeka EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Istra 1961 EU Bookmakers 21%
+1% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +4%
1.65/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.40
+23% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -4%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
350 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 79%
25.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.1
22.2 Crosses 13.1
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rijeka
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Istra 1961
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.75 xG 0.67
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
354 Passes 252
81% Pass Accuracy 74%
20 Box Touches 10
19 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 3
14.04.2024 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 0-2 HT 0-1 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
04.02.2024 Rijeka Rijeka 3-0 HT 2-0 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
22.10.2023 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 1-1 HT 0-1 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
06.08.2023 Rijeka Rijeka 6-0 HT 3-0 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
06.05.2023 Rijeka Rijeka 2-2 HT 0-1 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
03.03.2023 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 0-2 HT 0-1 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rijeka
4-0
AWAY Istra 1961
1.68 xG 1.42
38% Ball Possession 62%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 1
162 Passes 317
66% Pass Accuracy 76%
15 Box Touches 13
10 Crosses 10
0 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Rijeka vs Istra 1961
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rijeka swept aside Istra 1961 4-0. Half-time: 3-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Rijeka as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Rijeka had 38% of the ball to Istra 1961's 62%, shots finished 14-8, expected goals 1.68 to 1.42.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rijeka had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Rijeka and 0.50 for Istra 1961.

What was the final score of Rijeka vs Istra 1961?

Rijeka 4-0 Istra 1961 in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 18/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rijeka vs Istra 1961?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rijeka win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Rijeka 55%, draw 23%, Istra 1961 22%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rijeka), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Rijeka) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HIR More Croatia - 1. HNL
18 Aug 2024
19:50 Hajduk Split vs NK Varazdin Analysis →
22:00 HNK Gorica vs Osijek Analysis →