Hajduk Split 2-1 NK Varazdin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 18 Aug 2024

📅18/08/2024 · 🕒19:50 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.45
Draw
27%
4.08
Away
22%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.91
Over 2.5
46%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.99
No
54%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.44
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
20%
3.46
6+ Goals
10%
13.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.44 — our 30% vs market 23.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
6%
X/X
8%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
64%
-13.1pp
26%
Draw
21%
+5.4pp
22%
Away Win
14%
+7.7pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+6.0pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-6.0pp
46%
BTTS Yes
46%
-0.6pp
54%
BTTS No
54%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hajduk Split EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY NK Varazdin EU Bookmakers 18%
-7% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +15%
1.50/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.27
-4% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +32% / +17%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
362 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 74%
26.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.1
21.9 Crosses 12.1
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hajduk Split
4W-1D-1L
AWAY NK Varazdin
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.32 xG 0.71
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
347 Passes 277
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
28 Box Touches 14
21 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
05.05.2024 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 0-1 HT 0-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
27.02.2024 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 5-0 HT 2-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIRK
24.02.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-1 HT 1-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
12.11.2023 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 3-1 HT 2-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
26.08.2023 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-2 HT 1-1 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
22.04.2023 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 2-0 HT 1-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hajduk Split
2-1
AWAY NK Varazdin
1.13 xG 0.87
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 7
367 Passes 303
82% Pass Accuracy 79%
31 Box Touches 9
20 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Hajduk Split vs NK Varazdin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hajduk Split squeezed past NK Varazdin 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Hajduk Split as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Hajduk Split had 54% of the ball to NK Varazdin's 46%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 1.13 to 0.87.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hajduk Split had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Hajduk Split and 0.67 for NK Varazdin.

What was the final score of Hajduk Split vs NK Varazdin?

Hajduk Split 2-1 NK Varazdin in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 18/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hajduk Split vs NK Varazdin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hajduk Split win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Hajduk Split 51%, draw 26%, NK Varazdin 22%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hajduk Split) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Hajduk Split) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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