Sporting Covilha 1-0 Caldas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 18 Aug 2024

📅18/08/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.53
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
40%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.67
Over 2.5
47%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.88
No
51%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
20%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
36%
-2.7pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.1pp
40%
Away Win
36%
+3.7pp
53%
Under 2.5
56%
-3.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
44%
+3.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.4pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Covilha EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Caldas EU Bookmakers 40%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
1.70/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.66/1.58
+37% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / -22%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
233 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
4.2 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Covilha
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Caldas
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.25
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.01.2024 Caldas Caldas 2-1 HT 0-1 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POR3
28.10.2023 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha 4-3 HT 0-2 Caldas Caldas POR3
02.10.2022 Caldas Caldas 3-0 HT 1-0 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POK
10.10.2020 Caldas Caldas 1-1 HT 1-0 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Covilha
1-0
AWAY Caldas
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sporting Covilha vs Caldas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Covilha edged past Caldas 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (33% / 27% / 40%) promised a tight game; Sporting Covilha found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Sporting Covilha had 50% of the ball to Caldas's 50%, shots finished 10-16.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Caldas led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Sporting Covilha and 2.25 for Caldas.

What was the final score of Sporting Covilha vs Caldas?

Sporting Covilha 1-0 Caldas in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 18/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Covilha vs Caldas?

Before kick-off our model rated an Caldas win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Sporting Covilha 33%, draw 27%, Caldas 40%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Caldas) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Caldas) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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