Caldas 2-1 Sporting Covilha — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 27 Jan 2024

📅27/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
33%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.95
Over 2.5
48%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
16%
X/2
14%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
53%
-10.5pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.4pp
33%
Away Win
23%
+10.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.5pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caldas EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Covilha EU Bookmakers 26%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +18% / +18%
1.96/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.75/1.27
+30% / -32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +66% / +2%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
357 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 255 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.3 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caldas
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Sporting Covilha
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
41% Ball Possession 59%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
4 Yellow Cards 3
28.10.2023 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha 4-3 HT 0-2 Caldas Caldas POR3
02.10.2022 Caldas Caldas 3-0 HT 1-0 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POK
10.10.2020 Caldas Caldas 1-1 HT 1-0 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Caldas
2-1
AWAY Sporting Covilha
63% Ball Possession 37%
7 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 1
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Caldas vs Sporting Covilha
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Caldas squeezed past Sporting Covilha 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Caldas as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Caldas had 63% of the ball to Sporting Covilha's 37%, shots finished 7-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Caldas and 1.67 for Sporting Covilha.

What was the final score of Caldas vs Sporting Covilha?

Caldas 2-1 Sporting Covilha in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 27/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caldas vs Sporting Covilha?

Before kick-off our model rated a Caldas win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Caldas 42%, draw 24%, Sporting Covilha 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Caldas) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Caldas) ✗ Under 2.5
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