Başakşehir FK 4-2 Alanyaspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 18 Aug 2024

📅18/08/2024 · 🕒19:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.05
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
31%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.75
Over 2.5
44%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.82
No
57%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
2.95
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
3.96
6+ Goals
9%
18.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.95 — our 29% vs market 28.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.92
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.7
X/1
11%
4.51
X/2
13%
6.76
X/X
16%
4.39
2/1
6%
27.0
2/2
11%
5.15
2/X
6%
14.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
45%
-3.3pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.8pp
31%
Away Win
28%
+2.5pp
56%
Under 2.5
53%
+3.0pp
44%
Over 2.5
47%
-3.0pp
43%
BTTS Yes
51%
-8.1pp
57%
BTTS No
49%
+8.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Başakşehir FK EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Alanyaspor EU Bookmakers 32%
+4% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +14%
1.50/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.18
+6% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / +17%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
379 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 355 · 81%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
17.3 Crosses 17.5
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Başakşehir FK
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Alanyaspor
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.04 xG 1.11
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
444 Passes 402
87% Pass Accuracy 84%
21 Box Touches 17
17 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.01.2024 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK 3-2 HT 2-1 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor TSL
14.08.2023 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor 2-0 HT 1-0 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK TSL
03.03.2023 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor 1-0 HT 0-0 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK TSL
03.09.2022 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK 2-0 HT 1-0 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor TSL
08.01.2022 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor 1-1 HT 1-1 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK TSL
15.08.2021 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK 0-1 HT 0-1 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Başakşehir FK
4-2
AWAY Alanyaspor
1.12 xG 2.13
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
342 Passes 389
85% Pass Accuracy 85%
15 Box Touches 25
13 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Başakşehir FK vs Alanyaspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Başakşehir FK saw off Alanyaspor 4-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Başakşehir FK as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Başakşehir FK had 47% of the ball to Alanyaspor's 53%, shots finished 11-13, expected goals 1.12 to 2.13 — the balance of chances actually favoured Alanyaspor.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Alanyaspor led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Başakşehir FK and 1.17 for Alanyaspor.

What was the final score of Başakşehir FK vs Alanyaspor?

Başakşehir FK 4-2 Alanyaspor in the Turkey - Super League on 18/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Başakşehir FK vs Alanyaspor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Başakşehir FK win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Başakşehir FK 41%, draw 28%, Alanyaspor 31%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Başakşehir FK) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Başakşehir FK) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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