Club Brugge 0-3 Borussia Dortmund — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 18 Sep 2024

📅18/09/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.84
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
41%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.15
Over 2.5
52%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.55
No
48%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.33
2-3 Goals
37%
1.88
4-5 Goals
27%
2.97
6+ Goals
10%
8.96
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
4.37
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
23.6
1/X
8%
12.55
X/1
13%
6.77
X/2
15%
5.12
X/X
8%
5.16
2/1
6%
29.5
2/2
17%
2.95
2/X
7%
12.35
Value flag · 1/2 at 23.6 — our 9% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
32%
+3.9pp
23%
Draw
26%
-2.5pp
41%
Away Win
43%
-1.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
43%
+4.9pp
52%
Over 2.5
57%
-4.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
60%
-8.3pp
48%
BTTS No
40%
+8.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Club Brugge EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Borussia Dortmund EU Bookmakers 46%
-17% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
0.91/2.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.74/1.74
-65% / -48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +33% / -16%
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
275 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 399 · 81%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.2
17.7 Crosses 12.5
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Club Brugge
0W-1D-3L
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.75
0.52 xG 1.40
39% Ball Possession 61%
7 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 5
372 Passes 661
81% Pass Accuracy 89%
14 Box Touches 28
12 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 1
24.11.2020 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 3-0 HT 2-0 Club Brugge Club Brugge ŞMP
04.11.2020 Club Brugge Club Brugge 0-3 HT 0-3 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund ŞMP
28.11.2018 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 0-0 HT 0-0 Club Brugge Club Brugge ŞMP
18.09.2018 Club Brugge Club Brugge 0-1 HT 0-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund ŞMP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Club Brugge
0-3
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
1.30 xG 1.88
37% Ball Possession 63%
18 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 3
358 Passes 678
87% Pass Accuracy 93%
25 Box Touches 24
14 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Club Brugge vs Borussia Dortmund
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Borussia Dortmund ran out comfortable winners over Club Brugge 3-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 23% / 41% — and on the day Borussia Dortmund made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Club Brugge had 37% of the ball to Borussia Dortmund's 63%, shots finished 18-17, expected goals 1.30 to 1.88.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Borussia Dortmund led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Club Brugge and 1.75 for Borussia Dortmund.

What was the final score of Club Brugge vs Borussia Dortmund?

Club Brugge 0-3 Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League on 18/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Club Brugge vs Borussia Dortmund?

Before kick-off our model rated an Borussia Dortmund win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Club Brugge 36%, draw 23%, Borussia Dortmund 41%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Borussia Dortmund), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Borussia Dortmund) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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