Sparta Prag 3-0 Salzburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 18 Sep 2024

📅18/09/2024 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.05
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
30%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.21
Over 2.5
49%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.53
No
50%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.52
2-3 Goals
38%
1.9
4-5 Goals
21%
2.9
6+ Goals
12%
8.39
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.52 — our 29% vs market 17.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.86
1/2
6%
30.0
1/X
7%
12.35
X/1
8%
5.07
X/2
14%
6.95
X/X
13%
5.27
2/1
7%
23.15
2/2
10%
4.47
2/X
9%
12.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
45%
-3.3pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.0pp
30%
Away Win
30%
+0.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
41%
+9.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
59%
-9.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
61%
-10.7pp
50%
BTTS No
39%
+10.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sparta Prag EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Salzburg EU Bookmakers 33%
+19% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -17%
2.51/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.15
+53% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / -30%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
298 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 76%
31.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.1
16.5 Crosses 12.9
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sparta Prag
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Salzburg
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.59 xG 1.63
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
316 Passes 466
81% Pass Accuracy 85%
22 Box Touches 26
9 Crosses 6
13.07.2024 Sparta Prag Sparta Prag 2-2 HT 1-2 Salzburg Salzburg HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sparta Prag
3-0
AWAY Salzburg
2.55 xG 0.58
29% Ball Possession 71%
11 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 2
169 Passes 554
67% Pass Accuracy 87%
19 Box Touches 12
9 Crosses 5
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sparta Prag vs Salzburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sparta Prag ran out comfortable winners over Salzburg 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Sparta Prag as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Sparta Prag had 29% of the ball to Salzburg's 71%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 2.55 to 0.58.

What was the final score of Sparta Prag vs Salzburg?

Sparta Prag 3-0 Salzburg in the Champions League on 18/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sparta Prag vs Salzburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sparta Prag win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Sparta Prag 42%, draw 29%, Salzburg 30%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sparta Prag) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sparta Prag) ✗ Under 2.5
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