PSG vs Girona Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PSG v Girona — Team-Based Signals
PSG 1-0 Girona — Actual Match Statistics
PSG squeezed past Girona 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Just as the model leaned, our model had PSG as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.
On the day, PSG had 64% of the ball to Girona's 36%, shots finished 26-3, expected goals 2.10 to 0.25 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold PSG's control.
What was the final score of PSG vs Girona?
PSG 1-0 Girona in the Champions League on 18/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for PSG vs Girona?
Before kick-off our model rated a PSG win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split PSG 51%, draw 23%, Girona 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PSG), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.