Deportes Tolima 1-2 Deportivo Pasto — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Cup, 18 Sep 2024

📅18/09/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.47
Draw
32%
2.88
Away
25%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.48
Over 2.5
44%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.09
No
52%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
9%
X/X
20%
2/1
10%
2/2
9%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
37%
+6.7pp
32%
Draw
31%
+0.4pp
25%
Away Win
32%
-7.1pp
56%
Under 2.5
64%
-8.2pp
44%
Over 2.5
36%
+8.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
44%
+4.1pp
52%
BTTS No
56%
-4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportes Tolima EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Pasto EU Bookmakers 36%
+46% / +46% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -25% / -25%
2.34/0.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.60/1.40
+101% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -42% / -16%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
275 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 370 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportes Tolima
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Deportivo Pasto
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.19 xG 0.74
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
320 Passes 242
79% Pass Accuracy 74%
19 Box Touches 13
17 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
24.07.2024 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 2-1 HT 2-1 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
27.01.2024 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 1-4 HT 1-1 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
18.09.2023 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 1-2 HT 1-0 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
11.04.2023 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 3-1 HT 2-0 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
09.10.2022 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 2-1 HT 0-0 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
17.04.2022 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 0-1 HT 0-0 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
POST-MATCH Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportivo Pasto nicked a narrow win over Deportes Tolima 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Deportes Tolima at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Deportes Tolima had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Deportes Tolima and 1.17 for Deportivo Pasto.

What was the final score of Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto?

Deportes Tolima 1-2 Deportivo Pasto in the Colombia - Cup on 18/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportes Tolima win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Deportes Tolima 43%, draw 32%, Deportivo Pasto 25%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Deportes Tolima) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
KOLK More Colombia - Cup
18 Sep 2024
00:00 Envigado vs Jaguares De Cordoba Analysis →
04:00 Fortaleza CEIF vs Deportivo Cali Analysis →