Deportes Tolima 2-1 Deportivo Pasto — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 24 Jul 2024

📅24/07/2024 · 🕒04:20 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.57
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
23%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.64
Over 2.5
38%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.19
No
63%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
10%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
6%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
59%
-10.3pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.4pp
23%
Away Win
16%
+7.0pp
62%
Under 2.5
57%
+4.8pp
38%
Over 2.5
43%
-4.8pp
37%
BTTS Yes
42%
-5.0pp
63%
BTTS No
58%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportes Tolima EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Pasto EU Bookmakers 20%
-1% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -10%
1.35/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.27
-1% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +2%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
357 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 77%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.7
18.0 Crosses 11.6
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportes Tolima
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Deportivo Pasto
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.33 xG 0.93
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
317 Passes 251
79% Pass Accuracy 75%
21 Box Touches 13
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
27.01.2024 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 1-4 HT 1-1 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
18.09.2023 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 1-2 HT 1-0 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
11.04.2023 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 3-1 HT 2-0 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
09.10.2022 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 2-1 HT 0-0 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
17.04.2022 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 0-1 HT 0-0 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
14.08.2021 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 1-0 HT 1-0 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportes Tolima
2-1
AWAY Deportivo Pasto
0.51 xG 0.19
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 2
301 Passes 278
77% Pass Accuracy 73%
12 Box Touches 8
8 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportes Tolima squeezed past Deportivo Pasto 2-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Deportes Tolima as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (63%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Deportes Tolima had 50% of the ball to Deportivo Pasto's 50%, shots finished 13-6, expected goals 0.51 to 0.19.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Deportes Tolima had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Deportes Tolima and 1.00 for Deportivo Pasto.

What was the final score of Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto?

Deportes Tolima 2-1 Deportivo Pasto in the Colombia - Primera on 24/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportes Tolima win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Deportes Tolima 49%, draw 28%, Deportivo Pasto 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Deportes Tolima) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Deportes Tolima) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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