Minnesota United 1-2 Austin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Open Cup, 18 Sep 2025

Minnesota United
1-2 HT 0-1
Austin
📅18/09/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✓
USA - Open Cup – 2025

Minnesota United vs Austin Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.9
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
29%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.91
Over 2.5
54%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.7
No
43%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.34
2-3 Goals
41%
1.75
4-5 Goals
22%
3.29
6+ Goals
11%
12.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.56
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
12.35
X/1
21%
4.68
X/2 EV+ ✗
16%
7.97
X/X
10%
4.65
2/1
6%
24.1
2/2
7%
5.92
2/X
6%
13.35
Value flag · X/2 at 7.97 — our 16% vs market 8.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
48%
-1.2pp
24%
Draw
27%
-3.1pp
29%
Away Win
25%
+4.3pp
46%
Under 2.5
48%
-1.9pp
54%
Over 2.5
52%
+1.9pp
57%
BTTS Yes
55%
+2.6pp
43%
BTTS No
45%
-2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Minnesota United v Austin — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Minnesota United EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Austin EU Bookmakers 29%
+25% / +25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +14%
2.58/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.49/1.92
+43% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +41% / -1%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
315 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 78%
31.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.0
22.7 Crosses 22.0
3.2 Yellow Cards 5.0

Minnesota United vs Austin Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Minnesota United
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Austin
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.80 xG 1.42
47% Ball Possession 53%
18 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
302 Passes 359
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
29 Box Touches 22
23 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
25.05.2025 Minnesota United Minnesota United 1-1 HT 1-1 Austin Austin ABD
04.05.2025 Austin Austin 0-3 HT 0-2 Minnesota United Minnesota United ABD
23.06.2024 Minnesota United Minnesota United 0-1 HT 0-1 Austin Austin ABD
25.02.2024 Austin Austin 1-2 HT 0-1 Minnesota United Minnesota United ABD
09.07.2023 Minnesota United Minnesota United 1-4 HT 0-2 Austin Austin ABD
01.06.2023 Austin Austin 2-1 HT 1-1 Minnesota United Minnesota United ABD

Minnesota United 1-2 Austin — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Minnesota United
1-2
AWAY Austin
1.55 xG 1.89
47% Ball Possession 53%
22 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 2
471 Passes 573
84% Pass Accuracy 88%
37 Box Touches 27
22 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Minnesota United vs Austin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Austin nicked a narrow win over Minnesota United 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Minnesota United at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Minnesota United had 47% of the ball to Austin's 53%, shots finished 22-13, expected goals 1.55 to 1.89.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Austin led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Minnesota United and 1.50 for Austin.

What was the final score of Minnesota United vs Austin?

Minnesota United 1-2 Austin in the USA - Open Cup on 18/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Minnesota United vs Austin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Minnesota United win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Minnesota United 47%, draw 24%, Austin 29%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Minnesota United) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Minnesota United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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