Austin 1-2 Minnesota United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 25 Feb 2024

📅25/02/2024 · 🕒04:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.09
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
37%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.0
Over 2.5
56%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.61
No
45%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.82
2-3 Goals
37%
1.83
4-5 Goals
26%
3.21
6+ Goals
14%
10.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.92
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
31.5
1/X
6%
12.65
X/1
8%
4.91
X/2
12%
6.81
X/X
13%
4.9
2/1
8%
24.45
2/2
17%
4.63
2/X
6%
12.95
Value flag · 1/2 at 31.5 — our 8% vs market 1.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
44%
-5.6pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.3pp
37%
Away Win
30%
+7.0pp
44%
Under 2.5
46%
-1.8pp
56%
Over 2.5
54%
+1.8pp
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
-2.9pp
45%
BTTS No
42%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Austin EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Minnesota United EU Bookmakers 33%
+7% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -18%
1.83/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.41
+24% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -11%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
366 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 81%
25.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.1
24.2 Crosses 17.3
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Austin
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Minnesota United
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.66 xG 1.72
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
394 Passes 302
84% Pass Accuracy 79%
29 Box Touches 28
19 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 1
09.07.2023 Minnesota United Minnesota United 1-4 HT 0-2 Austin Austin ABD
01.06.2023 Austin Austin 2-1 HT 1-1 Minnesota United Minnesota United ABD
21.08.2022 Minnesota United Minnesota United 2-1 HT 1-1 Austin Austin ABD
11.04.2022 Austin Austin 1-0 HT 0-0 Minnesota United Minnesota United ABD
17.10.2021 Austin Austin 0-1 HT 0-1 Minnesota United Minnesota United ABD
24.06.2021 Minnesota United Minnesota United 2-0 HT 2-0 Austin Austin ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Austin
1-2
AWAY Minnesota United
1.11 xG 3.00
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 22
2 Shots on Target 10
4 Corners 16
304 Passes 277
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
25 Box Touches 29
15 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Austin vs Minnesota United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Minnesota United nicked a narrow win over Austin 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 25% / 37% — and on the day Minnesota United made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Austin had 51% of the ball to Minnesota United's 49%, shots finished 9-22, expected goals 1.11 to 3.00 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Minnesota United's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Austin and 1.17 for Minnesota United.

What was the final score of Austin vs Minnesota United?

Austin 1-2 Minnesota United in the USA - Major League on 25/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Austin vs Minnesota United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Austin win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Austin 38%, draw 25%, Minnesota United 37%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Austin) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Austin) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
ABD More USA - Major League
25 Feb 2024
00:30 Los Angeles FC vs Seattle Sounders Analysis →
03:30 DC United vs New England Revolution Analysis →
03:30 Charlotte vs New York City FC Analysis →
03:30 Philadelphia Union vs Chicago Fire Analysis →
03:30 Orlando City vs CF Montreal Analysis →
04:30 FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes Analysis →