Philadelphia Union 2-2 Chicago Fire — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 25 Feb 2024

📅25/02/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.76
Draw
28%
3.64
Away
22%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.0
Over 2.5
44%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.7
No
54%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.72
2-3 Goals
41%
1.82
4-5 Goals
20%
3.26
6+ Goals
9%
11.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.72 — our 30% vs market 21.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.26
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.25
X/1
16%
4.11
X/2
8%
9.05
X/X
13%
5.25
2/1
8%
22.7
2/2
7%
6.76
2/X
7%
14.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
53%
-3.1pp
28%
Draw
24%
+3.6pp
22%
Away Win
23%
-0.5pp
56%
Under 2.5
46%
+9.6pp
44%
Over 2.5
54%
-9.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
55%
-8.8pp
54%
BTTS No
45%
+8.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Philadelphia Union EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Chicago Fire EU Bookmakers 26%
+6% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -1%
1.95/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.89
+18% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / -15%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
356 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 361 · 81%
26.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
17.8 Crosses 15.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Philadelphia Union
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Chicago Fire
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.73 xG 1.11
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
314 Passes 308
76% Pass Accuracy 77%
30 Box Touches 18
21 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
16.04.2023 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 2-2 HT 1-0 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
12.03.2023 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 1-0 HT 0-0 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
14.08.2022 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 4-1 HT 2-0 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
30.06.2022 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 1-0 HT 0-0 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
02.08.2021 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 1-1 HT 1-1 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
27.06.2021 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 3-3 HT 1-2 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Philadelphia Union
2-2
AWAY Chicago Fire
2.08 xG 1.58
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 3
360 Passes 304
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
36 Box Touches 21
34 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Philadelphia Union vs Chicago Fire
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Philadelphia Union and Chicago Fire shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Philadelphia Union at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Philadelphia Union had 54% of the ball to Chicago Fire's 46%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 2.08 to 1.58.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Philadelphia Union had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Philadelphia Union and 1.33 for Chicago Fire.

What was the final score of Philadelphia Union vs Chicago Fire?

Philadelphia Union 2-2 Chicago Fire in the USA - Major League on 25/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Philadelphia Union vs Chicago Fire?

Before kick-off our model rated a Philadelphia Union win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Philadelphia Union 50%, draw 28%, Chicago Fire 22%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Philadelphia Union) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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