FC Dallas 2-1 San Jose Earthquakes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 25 Feb 2024

📅25/02/2024 · 🕒04:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.12
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
31%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.71
Over 2.5
46%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.82
No
51%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
2.87
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.06
6+ Goals
9%
19.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.87 — our 29% vs market 29.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.11
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.25
X/1
18%
4.72
X/2
13%
6.51
X/X
11%
4.18
2/1
7%
28.5
2/2
13%
4.9
2/X
7%
13.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
43%
+0.0pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.3pp
31%
Away Win
29%
+2.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
55%
-1.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
45%
+1.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.0pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Dallas EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY San Jose Earthquakes EU Bookmakers 32%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -8%
1.38/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.78
-8% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -29%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
334 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 77%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
16.5 Crosses 17.9
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Dallas
1W-5D-0L
AWAY San Jose Earthquakes
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.18 xG 1.17
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
394 Passes 372
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
22 Box Touches 22
13 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
08.10.2023 FC Dallas FC Dallas 1-1 HT 0-1 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes ABD
28.05.2023 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 1-1 HT 0-0 FC Dallas FC Dallas ABD
18.09.2022 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 1-1 HT 1-1 FC Dallas FC Dallas ABD
14.08.2022 FC Dallas FC Dallas 4-1 HT 3-0 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes ABD
08.11.2021 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 1-1 HT 1-1 FC Dallas FC Dallas ABD
12.09.2021 FC Dallas FC Dallas 1-1 HT 0-1 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Dallas
2-1
AWAY San Jose Earthquakes
1.06 xG 0.93
53% Ball Possession 47%
21 Total Shots 10
9 Shots on Target 6
10 Corners 1
398 Passes 346
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
29 Box Touches 13
22 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Dallas squeezed past San Jose Earthquakes 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had FC Dallas as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, FC Dallas had 53% of the ball to San Jose Earthquakes's 47%, shots finished 21-10, expected goals 1.06 to 0.93.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Dallas had the better of it with 1 wins, 5 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for FC Dallas and 1.00 for San Jose Earthquakes.

What was the final score of FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes?

FC Dallas 2-1 San Jose Earthquakes in the USA - Major League on 25/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Dallas win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split FC Dallas 43%, draw 26%, San Jose Earthquakes 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Dallas) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (FC Dallas) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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