Minnesota United 0-1 Austin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 23 Jun 2024

📅23/06/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.64
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
27%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.23
Over 2.5
49%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.61
No
52%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
26%
4.57
2-3 Goals
40%
1.9
4-5 Goals
24%
2.88
6+ Goals
10%
8.23
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.57 — our 26% vs market 17.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
11%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
56%
-8.4pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.7pp
27%
Away Win
21%
+6.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
41%
+9.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
59%
-9.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
58%
-10.2pp
52%
BTTS No
42%
+10.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Minnesota United EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Austin EU Bookmakers 24%
+3% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -7%
1.81/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.69
+4% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -3%
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
369 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 81%
28.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
21.5 Crosses 18.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Minnesota United
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Austin
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
2.04 xG 1.67
44% Ball Possession 56%
17 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
268 Passes 375
77% Pass Accuracy 83%
29 Box Touches 28
20 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 1
25.02.2024 Austin Austin 1-2 HT 0-1 Minnesota United Minnesota United ABD
09.07.2023 Minnesota United Minnesota United 1-4 HT 0-2 Austin Austin ABD
01.06.2023 Austin Austin 2-1 HT 1-1 Minnesota United Minnesota United ABD
21.08.2022 Minnesota United Minnesota United 2-1 HT 1-1 Austin Austin ABD
11.04.2022 Austin Austin 1-0 HT 0-0 Minnesota United Minnesota United ABD
17.10.2021 Austin Austin 0-1 HT 0-1 Minnesota United Minnesota United ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Minnesota United
0-1
AWAY Austin
0.61 xG 0.59
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 9
1 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
374 Passes 432
86% Pass Accuracy 86%
15 Box Touches 14
18 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Minnesota United vs Austin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Austin nicked a narrow win over Minnesota United 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Minnesota United at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Minnesota United had 47% of the ball to Austin's 53%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 0.61 to 0.59.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Minnesota United and 1.50 for Austin.

What was the final score of Minnesota United vs Austin?

Minnesota United 0-1 Austin in the USA - Major League on 23/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Minnesota United vs Austin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Minnesota United win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Minnesota United 48%, draw 25%, Austin 27%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Minnesota United) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Minnesota United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
ABD More USA - Major League
23 Jun 2024
02:30 DC United vs Houston Dynamo Analysis →
02:30 New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC Analysis →
02:30 Orlando City vs Chicago Fire Analysis →
02:30 FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution Analysis →
02:30 Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte Analysis →
02:30 Columbus Crew vs Sporting Kansas City Analysis →