FC Cincinnati 1-2 New England Revolution — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 23 Jun 2024

FC Cincinnati
1-2 HT 0-2
New England Revolution
📅23/06/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
USA - Major League – 2024

FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.57
Draw
22%
4.08
Away
20%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
2.51
Over 2.5
63%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.56
No
41%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
5.45
2-3 Goals
36%
2.0
4-5 Goals
31%
2.67
6+ Goals
15%
6.48
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.93
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.25
X/1
19%
4.06
X/2
7%
11.0
X/X
10%
6.72
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
19.55
2/2
7%
7.42
2/X
6%
15.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.55 — our 8% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
60%
-1.6pp
22%
Draw
21%
+0.7pp
20%
Away Win
19%
+0.9pp
37%
Under 2.5
36%
+1.1pp
63%
Over 2.5
64%
-1.1pp
59%
BTTS Yes
60%
-0.8pp
41%
BTTS No
40%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

FC Cincinnati v New England Revolution — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Cincinnati EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY New England Revolution EU Bookmakers 22%
+7% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -11%
1.75/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/2.10
-6% / +31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -10%
54% Ball Possession 46%
18 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
409 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 79%
26.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
14.6 Crosses 16.1
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.0

FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Cincinnati
1W-3D-2L
AWAY New England Revolution
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.33 xG 1.91
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
323 Passes 398
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
20 Box Touches 21
13 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
17.03.2024 New England Revolution New England Revolution 1-2 HT 0-0 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
02.07.2023 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 2-2 HT 1-2 New England Revolution New England Revolution ABD
30.04.2023 New England Revolution New England Revolution 1-1 HT 1-1 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
04.07.2022 New England Revolution New England Revolution 2-2 HT 1-1 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
22.05.2022 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 2-3 HT 1-2 New England Revolution New England Revolution ABD
12.05.2022 New England Revolution New England Revolution 5-1 HT 2-1 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABDK

FC Cincinnati 1-2 New England Revolution — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Cincinnati
1-2
AWAY New England Revolution
1.25 xG 0.50
58% Ball Possession 42%
20 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 3
350 Passes 245
81% Pass Accuracy 76%
38 Box Touches 17
15 Crosses 12
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

New England Revolution nicked a narrow win over FC Cincinnati 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had FC Cincinnati at 58% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (63%), both teams to score (59%) came in.

On the day, FC Cincinnati had 58% of the ball to New England Revolution's 42%, shots finished 20-10, expected goals 1.25 to 0.50 — the balance of chances actually favoured FC Cincinnati.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, New England Revolution led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for FC Cincinnati and 2.33 for New England Revolution.

What was the final score of FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution?

FC Cincinnati 1-2 New England Revolution in the USA - Major League on 23/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Cincinnati win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split FC Cincinnati 58%, draw 22%, New England Revolution 20%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (FC Cincinnati) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (FC Cincinnati) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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