St. Louis City 1-1 Atlanta United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 23 Jun 2024

St. Louis City
1-1 HT 0-0
Atlanta United
📅23/06/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
USA - Major League – 2024

St. Louis City vs Atlanta United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.89
Draw
28%
3.72
Away
30%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.33
Over 2.5
50%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.5
No
48%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.85
2-3 Goals
39%
1.93
4-5 Goals
25%
2.8
6+ Goals
10%
7.56
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.85 — our 26% vs market 15.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.52
1/2
7%
32.0
1/X
5%
13.25
X/1
12%
4.66
X/2
10%
7.68
X/X
16%
5.8
2/1
8%
21.2
2/2
13%
5.02
2/X
7%
13.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
49%
-6.8pp
28%
Draw
24%
+4.1pp
30%
Away Win
27%
+2.7pp
50%
Under 2.5
39%
+10.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
61%
-10.8pp
52%
BTTS Yes
62%
-10.8pp
48%
BTTS No
38%
+10.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

St. Louis City v Atlanta United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Louis City EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Atlanta United EU Bookmakers 31%
-6% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +1%
1.64/1.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.57
+8% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +16%
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
329 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 78%
25.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
20.5 Crosses 15.9
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.9

St. Louis City 1-1 Atlanta United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St. Louis City
1-1
AWAY Atlanta United
1.15 xG 1.59
48% Ball Possession 52%
16 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 8
7 Corners 5
268 Passes 298
74% Pass Accuracy 76%
28 Box Touches 24
23 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH St. Louis City vs Atlanta United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

St. Louis City and Atlanta United couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was St. Louis City at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, St. Louis City had 48% of the ball to Atlanta United's 52%, shots finished 16-13, expected goals 1.15 to 1.59.

What was the final score of St. Louis City vs Atlanta United?

St. Louis City 1-1 Atlanta United in the USA - Major League on 23/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Louis City vs Atlanta United?

Before kick-off our model rated a St. Louis City win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split St. Louis City 42%, draw 28%, Atlanta United 30%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (St. Louis City) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (St. Louis City) ✓ BTTS Yes
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