DC United 1-4 Houston Dynamo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 23 Jun 2024

DC United
1-4 HT 1-0
Houston Dynamo
📅23/06/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
USA - Major League – 2024

DC United vs Houston Dynamo Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.12
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
32%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.15
Over 2.5
53%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.56
No
45%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.18
2-3 Goals
40%
1.86
4-5 Goals
26%
3.03
6+ Goals
11%
9.43
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.0
1/2
8%
29.0
1/X
7%
12.75
X/1
10%
5.08
X/2
10%
6.53
X/X
15%
5.21
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
24.0
2/2
14%
4.27
2/X
6%
12.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.0 — our 9% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
43%
-3.3pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.5pp
32%
Away Win
31%
+0.8pp
47%
Under 2.5
43%
+4.7pp
53%
Over 2.5
57%
-4.7pp
55%
BTTS Yes
60%
-5.5pp
45%
BTTS No
40%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

DC United v Houston Dynamo — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME DC United EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Houston Dynamo EU Bookmakers 34%
-8% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / +3%
1.66/1.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.49
+1% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +3%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
337 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 79%
27.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
19.7 Crosses 14.8
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.1

DC United vs Houston Dynamo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME DC United
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Houston Dynamo
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.44 xG 1.51
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
321 Passes 271
75% Pass Accuracy 71%
30 Box Touches 19
23 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
08.05.2022 DC United DC United 2-0 HT 2-0 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo ABD
19.05.2019 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 2-1 HT 0-0 DC United DC United ABD
17.03.2018 DC United DC United 2-2 HT 0-2 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo ABD
23.07.2017 DC United DC United 1-3 HT 0-3 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo ABD
19.06.2016 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 0-0 HT 0-0 DC United DC United ABD
19.04.2015 DC United DC United 1-1 HT 1-0 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo ABD

DC United 1-4 Houston Dynamo — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME DC United
1-4
AWAY Houston Dynamo
1.64 xG 2.17
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 2
264 Passes 384
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
27 Box Touches 26
24 Crosses 8
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH DC United vs Houston Dynamo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Houston Dynamo ran out comfortable winners over DC United 4-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (40% / 28% / 32%) promised a tight game; Houston Dynamo found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, DC United had 43% of the ball to Houston Dynamo's 57%, shots finished 10-14, expected goals 1.64 to 2.17.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Houston Dynamo led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for DC United and 1.33 for Houston Dynamo.

What was the final score of DC United vs Houston Dynamo?

DC United 1-4 Houston Dynamo in the USA - Major League on 23/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for DC United vs Houston Dynamo?

Before kick-off our model rated a DC United win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split DC United 40%, draw 28%, Houston Dynamo 32%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (DC United) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (DC United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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