Orlando City 4-2 Chicago Fire — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 23 Jun 2024

📅23/06/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.64
Draw
27%
3.8
Away
27%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.23
Over 2.5
51%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.61
No
52%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.63
2-3 Goals
39%
1.91
4-5 Goals
24%
2.86
6+ Goals
11%
8.09
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.63 — our 26% vs market 16.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.09
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.4
X/1
13%
4.14
X/2
9%
9.82
X/X
14%
5.97
2/1
6%
20.75
2/2
11%
6.89
2/X
5%
14.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
56%
-10.6pp
27%
Draw
23%
+3.8pp
27%
Away Win
21%
+6.7pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+8.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-8.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.8pp
52%
BTTS No
42%
+9.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Orlando City EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Chicago Fire EU Bookmakers 24%
-1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / +7%
1.80/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.78
+1% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -12%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
400 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 80%
27.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
18.0 Crosses 15.6
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Orlando City
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Chicago Fire
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.48 xG 0.97
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
368 Passes 352
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
22 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
30.05.2024 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 1-1 HT 0-1 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
21.08.2023 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 1-3 HT 0-0 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
02.07.2023 Orlando City Orlando City 3-1 HT 1-0 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
09.04.2022 Orlando City Orlando City 1-0 HT 0-0 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
06.03.2022 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 0-0 HT 0-0 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
22.08.2021 Orlando City Orlando City 1-0 HT 0-0 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Orlando City
4-2
AWAY Chicago Fire
2.27 xG 2.99
40% Ball Possession 60%
8 Total Shots 19
6 Shots on Target 12
1 Corners 3
311 Passes 503
82% Pass Accuracy 90%
19 Box Touches 34
1 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Orlando City vs Chicago Fire
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Orlando City saw off Chicago Fire 4-2. Half-time: 3-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Orlando City as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Orlando City had 40% of the ball to Chicago Fire's 60%, shots finished 8-19, expected goals 2.27 to 2.99 — the balance of chances actually favoured Chicago Fire.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Orlando City had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Orlando City and 0.50 for Chicago Fire.

What was the final score of Orlando City vs Chicago Fire?

Orlando City 4-2 Chicago Fire in the USA - Major League on 23/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Orlando City vs Chicago Fire?

Before kick-off our model rated a Orlando City win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Orlando City 46%, draw 27%, Chicago Fire 27%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Orlando City), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Orlando City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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