Chicago Fire 1-1 Orlando City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 30 May 2024

📅30/05/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.57
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
33%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.82
Over 2.5
49%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.7
No
52%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.22
2-3 Goals
36%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.65
6+ Goals
11%
15.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.22 — our 30% vs market 25.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.94
1/2
6%
28.5
1/X
7%
12.8
X/1
12%
5.77
X/2
14%
5.42
X/X
13%
4.41
2/1
5%
30.5
2/2
13%
3.6
2/X
7%
12.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
35%
+5.3pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.3pp
33%
Away Win
37%
-4.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
51%
+0.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
49%
-0.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
55%
-7.2pp
52%
BTTS No
45%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chicago Fire EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Orlando City EU Bookmakers 40%
-8% / -26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
1.25/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.25
-15% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -3%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
304 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 79%
21.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
19.1 Crosses 15.8
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chicago Fire
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Orlando City
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.08 xG 1.74
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 7
339 Passes 356
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 23
17 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
21.08.2023 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 1-3 HT 0-0 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
02.07.2023 Orlando City Orlando City 3-1 HT 1-0 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
09.04.2022 Orlando City Orlando City 1-0 HT 0-0 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
06.03.2022 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 0-0 HT 0-0 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
22.08.2021 Orlando City Orlando City 1-0 HT 0-0 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
08.07.2021 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 3-1 HT 1-1 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chicago Fire
1-1
AWAY Orlando City
1.00 xG 0.82
49% Ball Possession 51%
19 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
396 Passes 431
83% Pass Accuracy 84%
34 Box Touches 25
21 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Chicago Fire vs Orlando City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chicago Fire and Orlando City shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Chicago Fire at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Chicago Fire had 49% of the ball to Orlando City's 51%, shots finished 19-8, expected goals 1.00 to 0.82.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Orlando City led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Chicago Fire and 1.50 for Orlando City.

What was the final score of Chicago Fire vs Orlando City?

Chicago Fire 1-1 Orlando City in the USA - Major League on 30/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chicago Fire vs Orlando City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chicago Fire win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Chicago Fire 41%, draw 27%, Orlando City 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Chicago Fire), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Chicago Fire) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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