New York Red Bulls 3-1 Charlotte — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 30 May 2024

📅30/05/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.64
Draw
28%
3.64
Away
24%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.91
Over 2.5
45%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.46
2-3 Goals
42%
1.79
4-5 Goals
19%
3.45
6+ Goals
9%
13.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.46 — our 30% vs market 23.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
9%
X/X
14%
2/1
11%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
57%
-8.4pp
28%
Draw
24%
+3.5pp
24%
Away Win
19%
+4.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
48%
+6.1pp
45%
Over 2.5
52%
-6.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.4pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New York Red Bulls EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Charlotte EU Bookmakers 22%
-2% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -9%
1.59/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.43
-6% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -14%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
367 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 353 · 79%
25.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
18.3 Crosses 16.8
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME New York Red Bulls
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Charlotte
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.49 xG 1.10
38% Ball Possession 62%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
196 Passes 374
62% Pass Accuracy 74%
21 Box Touches 16
13 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 3
26.10.2023 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 5-2 HT 3-0 Charlotte Charlotte ABD
22.06.2023 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 2-2 HT 0-2 Charlotte Charlotte ABD
26.03.2023 Charlotte Charlotte 1-1 HT 0-1 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls ABD
09.10.2022 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 2-0 HT 1-0 Charlotte Charlotte ABD
11.06.2022 Charlotte Charlotte 2-0 HT 1-0 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls ABD
26.05.2022 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 3-1 HT 1-1 Charlotte Charlotte ABDK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New York Red Bulls
3-1
AWAY Charlotte
1.40 xG 0.62
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
356 Passes 385
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
21 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH New York Red Bulls vs Charlotte
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

New York Red Bulls got the better of Charlotte 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had New York Red Bulls as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, New York Red Bulls had 48% of the ball to Charlotte's 52%, shots finished 12-8, expected goals 1.40 to 0.62.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, New York Red Bulls had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for New York Red Bulls and 1.33 for Charlotte.

What was the final score of New York Red Bulls vs Charlotte?

New York Red Bulls 3-1 Charlotte in the USA - Major League on 30/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New York Red Bulls vs Charlotte?

Before kick-off our model rated a New York Red Bulls win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split New York Red Bulls 48%, draw 28%, Charlotte 24%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (New York Red Bulls) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (New York Red Bulls) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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