New England Revolution 1-2 FC Cincinnati — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 17 Mar 2024

📅17/03/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.02
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
29%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.97
Over 2.5
51%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.66
No
46%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.66
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals
23%
3.3
6+ Goals
11%
11.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.82
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
5%
13.1
X/1
17%
4.7
X/2
13%
6.98
X/X
18%
4.9
2/1
9%
24.0
2/2
10%
4.9
2/X
6%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
46%
-3.7pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.1pp
29%
Away Win
28%
+0.5pp
49%
Under 2.5
47%
+2.7pp
51%
Over 2.5
53%
-2.7pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.6pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New England Revolution EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Cincinnati EU Bookmakers 32%
-3% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +19%
1.70/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.52
-17% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / -6%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
350 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 78%
25.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.5
21.0 Crosses 12.5
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME New England Revolution
3W-3D-0L
AWAY FC Cincinnati
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
2.03 xG 1.27
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
375 Passes 339
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
21 Box Touches 22
20 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 1
02.07.2023 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 2-2 HT 1-2 New England Revolution New England Revolution ABD
30.04.2023 New England Revolution New England Revolution 1-1 HT 1-1 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
04.07.2022 New England Revolution New England Revolution 2-2 HT 1-1 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
22.05.2022 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 2-3 HT 1-2 New England Revolution New England Revolution ABD
12.05.2022 New England Revolution New England Revolution 5-1 HT 2-1 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABDK
22.08.2021 New England Revolution New England Revolution 4-1 HT 3-0 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New England Revolution
1-2
AWAY FC Cincinnati
1.21 xG 1.03
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 3
528 Passes 306
87% Pass Accuracy 78%
25 Box Touches 12
28 Crosses 3
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH New England Revolution vs FC Cincinnati
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Cincinnati nicked a narrow win over New England Revolution 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was New England Revolution at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, New England Revolution had 62% of the ball to FC Cincinnati's 38%, shots finished 16-13, expected goals 1.21 to 1.03.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, New England Revolution had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for New England Revolution and 1.50 for FC Cincinnati.

What was the final score of New England Revolution vs FC Cincinnati?

New England Revolution 1-2 FC Cincinnati in the USA - Major League on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New England Revolution vs FC Cincinnati?

Before kick-off our model rated a New England Revolution win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split New England Revolution 42%, draw 29%, FC Cincinnati 29%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (New England Revolution) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (New England Revolution) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
ABD More USA - Major League
17 Mar 2024
02:30 Columbus Crew vs New York Red Bulls Analysis →
02:30 New York City FC vs Toronto FC Analysis →
03:30 Nashville SC vs Charlotte Analysis →
03:30 Houston Dynamo vs Portland Timbers Analysis →
03:30 Sporting Kansas City vs San Jose Earthquakes Analysis →
03:30 FC Dallas vs Vancouver Whitecaps Analysis →