Kapaz 0-5 Karabağ — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 18 Oct 2024

📅18/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-3 2nd Score 0-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
14%
9.57
Draw
22%
6.26
Away
64%
1.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
3.14
Over 2.5
59%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.85
No
49%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
30%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
1/2
8%
1/X
4%
X/1
5%
X/2
17%
X/X
5%
2/1
3%
2/2
40%
2/X
13%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
14%
Home Win
8%
+6.0pp
22%
Draw
13%
+9.0pp
64%
Away Win
79%
-15.1pp
41%
Under 2.5
28%
+12.2pp
59%
Over 2.5
72%
-12.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
50%
+0.9pp
49%
BTTS No
50%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kapaz EU Bookmakers 10%
Head to Head
AWAY Karabağ EU Bookmakers 84%
-1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -8%
0.73/2.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.53/0.74
+22% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -8%
34% Ball Possession 66%
6 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
221 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 493 · 85%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.5 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kapaz
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Karabağ
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 3.67
09.08.2024 Karabağ Karabağ 3-0 HT 0-0 Kapaz Kapaz AZERS
29.03.2024 Kapaz Kapaz 1-6 HT 0-1 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
27.01.2024 Kapaz Kapaz 1-2 HT 0-0 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
04.11.2023 Karabağ Karabağ 7-1 HT 5-1 Kapaz Kapaz AZERS
27.08.2023 Karabağ Karabağ 1-1 HT 1-0 Kapaz Kapaz AZERS
09.04.2023 Karabağ Karabağ 3-1 HT 1-1 Kapaz Kapaz AZERS
POST-MATCH Kapaz vs Karabağ
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Karabağ ran out comfortable winners over Kapaz 5-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Karabağ as the likeliest winner at 64%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), and that read landed as well.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Karabağ led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Kapaz and 3.67 for Karabağ.

What was the final score of Kapaz vs Karabağ?

Kapaz 0-5 Karabağ in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 18/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kapaz vs Karabağ?

Before kick-off our model rated an Karabağ win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Kapaz 14%, draw 22%, Karabağ 64%. The final score 0-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Karabağ), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Karabağ) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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