UTC Cajamarca 0-1 Alianza Lima — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 18 Oct 2024

📅18/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
4.71
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
46%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.51
Over 2.5
41%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.29
No
56%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
20%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
19%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
18%
+8.3pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.2pp
46%
Away Win
54%
-8.0pp
59%
Under 2.5
62%
-3.8pp
41%
Over 2.5
38%
+3.8pp
44%
BTTS Yes
40%
+4.9pp
56%
BTTS No
60%
-4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME UTC Cajamarca EU Bookmakers 21%
Head to Head
AWAY Alianza Lima EU Bookmakers 57%
+0% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +8%
0.91/1.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/0.46
+7% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +73%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
281 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 77%
15.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.8
23.8 Crosses 20.6
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME UTC Cajamarca
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Alianza Lima
0.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.76 xG 1.31
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 7
204 Passes 318
68% Pass Accuracy 76%
12 Box Touches 23
14 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 3
04.05.2024 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 1-0 HT 0-0 UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca PER
06.08.2023 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 1-0 HT 0-0 UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca PER
05.03.2023 UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca 0-1 HT 0-0 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima PER
28.08.2022 UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca 1-1 HT 0-0 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima PER
10.04.2022 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 1-0 HT 0-0 UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca PER
02.10.2021 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 2-0 HT 1-0 UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME UTC Cajamarca
0-1
AWAY Alianza Lima
39% Ball Possession 61%
11 Total Shots 20
1 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 8
178 Passes 323
71% Pass Accuracy 81%
POST-MATCH UTC Cajamarca vs Alianza Lima
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alianza Lima edged past UTC Cajamarca 1-0 away from home.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Alianza Lima as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (56%) came in.

On the day, UTC Cajamarca had 39% of the ball to Alianza Lima's 61%, shots finished 11-20.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Alianza Lima led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.17 goals for UTC Cajamarca and 1.17 for Alianza Lima.

What was the final score of UTC Cajamarca vs Alianza Lima?

UTC Cajamarca 0-1 Alianza Lima in the Peru - Premier League on 18/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for UTC Cajamarca vs Alianza Lima?

Before kick-off our model rated an Alianza Lima win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split UTC Cajamarca 26%, draw 28%, Alianza Lima 46%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Alianza Lima), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Alianza Lima) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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