Independiente Medellin 1-0 Atletico Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Cup, 18 Nov 2024

📅18/11/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.02
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
34%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.67
Over 2.5
46%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.9
No
54%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
46%
-4.6pp
25%
Draw
29%
-4.1pp
34%
Away Win
26%
+8.7pp
54%
Under 2.5
56%
-2.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
44%
+2.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.0pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente Medellin EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Nacional EU Bookmakers 29%
+26% / +26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
1.80/0.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/1.43
+26% / +78% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +63% / -11%
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
355 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente Medellin
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Atletico Nacional
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.24 xG 1.10
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
322 Passes 239
78% Pass Accuracy 74%
20 Box Touches 16
12 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 3
12.11.2024 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 1-1 HT 0-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
01.11.2024 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 2-0 HT 1-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOLK
22.04.2024 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 2-2 HT 1-2 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
03.12.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 0-5 HT 0-2 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
20.11.2023 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 2-1 HT 2-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
15.10.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 1-2 HT 0-1 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
POST-MATCH Independiente Medellin vs Atletico Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Medellin nicked a narrow win over Atletico Nacional 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Independiente Medellin as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente Medellin had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Independiente Medellin and 1.17 for Atletico Nacional.

What was the final score of Independiente Medellin vs Atletico Nacional?

Independiente Medellin 1-0 Atletico Nacional in the Colombia - Cup on 18/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente Medellin vs Atletico Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente Medellin win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Independiente Medellin 41%, draw 25%, Atletico Nacional 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Independiente Medellin), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Independiente Medellin) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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