CA Penarol 2-0 Defensor Sporting — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 18 Nov 2024

📅18/11/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.45
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
22%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.67
Over 2.5
45%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.4
No
54%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
9%
X/X
9%
2/1
9%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
65%
-12.4pp
25%
Draw
22%
+2.7pp
22%
Away Win
13%
+9.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-1.0pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+1.0pp
46%
BTTS Yes
38%
+8.4pp
54%
BTTS No
62%
-8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CA Penarol EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Defensor Sporting EU Bookmakers 16%
-5% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +14%
1.53/0.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.70/0.96
-16% / +52% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +91%
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
426 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 226 · 65%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CA Penarol
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Defensor Sporting
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.07.2024 CA Penarol CA Penarol 1-0 HT 0-0 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting URU
19.05.2024 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 0-2 HT 0-1 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
08.10.2023 CA Penarol CA Penarol 2-1 HT 1-1 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting URU
23.07.2023 CA Penarol CA Penarol 2-1 HT 0-0 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting URU
26.02.2023 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 2-2 HT 1-1 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
08.08.2022 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 2-3 HT 0-1 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CA Penarol
2-0
AWAY Defensor Sporting
60% Ball Possession 40%
23 Total Shots 4
10 Shots on Target 0
8 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH CA Penarol vs Defensor Sporting
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CA Penarol saw off Defensor Sporting 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had CA Penarol as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, CA Penarol had 60% of the ball to Defensor Sporting's 40%, shots finished 23-4.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, CA Penarol had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for CA Penarol and 1.00 for Defensor Sporting.

What was the final score of CA Penarol vs Defensor Sporting?

CA Penarol 2-0 Defensor Sporting in the Uruguay - Premier League on 18/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CA Penarol vs Defensor Sporting?

Before kick-off our model rated a CA Penarol win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split CA Penarol 53%, draw 25%, Defensor Sporting 22%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CA Penarol), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (CA Penarol) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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URU More Uruguay - Premier League
18 Nov 2024
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