Arsenal 3-2 Crystal Palace — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - League Cup, 18 Dec 2024

Arsenal
3-2 HT 0-1
Crystal Palace
📅18/12/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
England - League Cup – 2024/2025

Arsenal vs Crystal Palace Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.66
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
24%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.86
Over 2.5
51%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.85
No
51%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.16
2-3 Goals
41%
1.75
4-5 Goals
21%
3.5
6+ Goals
11%
14.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.16 — our 27% vs market 25.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.21
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.9
X/1
17%
3.97
X/2
7%
9.8
X/X
15%
4.94
2/1
11%
24.7
2/2
8%
7.8
2/X
6%
15.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
56%
-7.6pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.6pp
24%
Away Win
20%
+4.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
50%
-0.5pp
51%
Over 2.5
50%
+0.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.3pp
51%
BTTS No
50%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Arsenal v Crystal Palace — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arsenal EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Crystal Palace EU Bookmakers 23%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.95/0.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.23/1.25
+45% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -99% / +150%
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
469 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 77%
33.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 7.0
24.3 Crosses 13.0
0.8 Yellow Cards 2.0

Arsenal vs Crystal Palace Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arsenal
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Crystal Palace
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.70 xG 0.93
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
468 Passes 338
86% Pass Accuracy 81%
33 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
20.01.2024 Arsenal Arsenal 5-0 HT 2-0 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace İNP
21.08.2023 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 0-1 HT 0-0 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
19.03.2023 Arsenal Arsenal 4-1 HT 2-0 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace İNP
05.08.2022 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 0-2 HT 0-1 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
04.04.2022 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 3-0 HT 2-0 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
18.10.2021 Arsenal Arsenal 2-2 HT 1-0 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace İNP

Arsenal 3-2 Crystal Palace — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arsenal
3-2
AWAY Crystal Palace
2.02 xG 0.41
70% Ball Possession 30%
12 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 2
481 Passes 146
88% Pass Accuracy 65%
37 Box Touches 11
16 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Arsenal vs Crystal Palace
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arsenal nicked a narrow win over Crystal Palace 3-2. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Arsenal as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Arsenal had 70% of the ball to Crystal Palace's 30%, shots finished 12-8, expected goals 2.02 to 0.41 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Arsenal's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arsenal had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Arsenal and 1.00 for Crystal Palace.

What was the final score of Arsenal vs Crystal Palace?

Arsenal 3-2 Crystal Palace in the England - League Cup on 18/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arsenal vs Crystal Palace?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arsenal win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Arsenal 48%, draw 28%, Crystal Palace 24%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arsenal), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Arsenal) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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