Newcastle United 3-1 Brentford — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - League Cup, 18 Dec 2024

Newcastle United
3-1 HT 2-0
Brentford
📅18/12/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✗ 2nd Score 4-0 ✗
England - League Cup – 2025/2026

Newcastle United vs Brentford Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.42
Draw
19%
4.62
Away
20%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.74
Over 2.5
54%
1.41
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.6
No
52%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
6.12
2-3 Goals
43%
2.06
4-5 Goals
27%
2.47
6+ Goals
9%
5.21
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1.67
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
4%
17.85
X/1
21%
3.92
X/2
9%
15.0
X/X
10%
7.93
2/1
6%
19.55
2/2
6%
10.1
2/X
5%
17.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
66%
-4.8pp
19%
Draw
19%
+0.1pp
20%
Away Win
15%
+4.7pp
46%
Under 2.5
33%
+13.3pp
54%
Over 2.5
67%
-13.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
58%
-10.7pp
52%
BTTS No
42%
+10.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Newcastle United v Brentford — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newcastle United EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Brentford EU Bookmakers 18%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +13%
1.62/0.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.36
-17% / +139% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +49%
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
436 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 361 · 79%
29.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.3
16.4 Crosses 12.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.0

Newcastle United vs Brentford Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newcastle United
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Brentford
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.99 xG 1.17
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
364 Passes 270
82% Pass Accuracy 76%
30 Box Touches 21
21 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
07.12.2024 Brentford Brentford 4-2 HT 2-2 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
19.05.2024 Brentford Brentford 2-4 HT 0-3 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
16.09.2023 Newcastle United Newcastle United 1-0 HT 0-0 Brentford Brentford İNP
08.04.2023 Brentford Brentford 1-2 HT 1-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
08.10.2022 Newcastle United Newcastle United 5-1 HT 2-0 Brentford Brentford İNP
26.02.2022 Brentford Brentford 0-2 HT 0-2 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
POST-MATCH Newcastle United vs Brentford
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newcastle United saw off Brentford 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Newcastle United as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newcastle United had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Newcastle United and 1.33 for Brentford.

What was the final score of Newcastle United vs Brentford?

Newcastle United 3-1 Brentford in the England - League Cup on 18/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newcastle United vs Brentford?

Before kick-off our model rated a Newcastle United win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Newcastle United 62%, draw 19%, Brentford 20%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Newcastle United), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Newcastle United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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