Helmond Sport 2-2 PSV II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 19 Jan 2024

Helmond Sport
2-2 HT 2-1
PSV II
📅19/01/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2023/2024

Helmond Sport vs PSV II Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.82
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
29%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.89
Over 2.5
52%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.43
No
44%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.99
2-3 Goals
41%
2.05
4-5 Goals
25%
2.52
6+ Goals
12%
5.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.35
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
31.5
1/X
8%
13.1
X/1
12%
4.71
X/2
10%
8.24
X/X
10%
6.34
2/1
7%
19.75
2/2
12%
5.05
2/X
7%
13.25
Value flag · 1/2 at 31.5 — our 8% vs market 1.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
51%
-5.6pp
26%
Draw
23%
+2.8pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+2.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
31%
+16.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
69%
-16.7pp
56%
BTTS Yes
66%
-10.2pp
44%
BTTS No
34%
+10.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Helmond Sport v PSV II — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Helmond Sport EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY PSV II EU Bookmakers 30%
-8% / -25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +4%
1.10/0.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.46
-21% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -2%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
380 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 79%
22.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
22.0 Crosses 11.5
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.1

Helmond Sport vs PSV II Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Helmond Sport
2W-1D-3L
AWAY PSV II
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.71 xG 1.27
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
322 Passes 443
78% Pass Accuracy 83%
12 Box Touches 23
13 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
28.08.2023 PSV II PSV II 2-1 HT 1-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
10.03.2023 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 3-0 HT 1-0 PSV II PSV II HOL2
24.10.2022 PSV II PSV II 6-0 HT 2-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
04.02.2022 PSV II PSV II 2-0 HT 1-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
27.08.2021 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 1-0 HT 0-0 PSV II PSV II HOL2
23.02.2021 PSV II PSV II 2-2 HT 0-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2

Helmond Sport 2-2 PSV II — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Helmond Sport
2-2
AWAY PSV II
0.81 xG 1.25
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 8
7 Corners 7
310 Passes 430
77% Pass Accuracy 85%
26 Box Touches 25
12 Crosses 20
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Helmond Sport vs PSV II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Helmond Sport and PSV II couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Helmond Sport at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Helmond Sport had 44% of the ball to PSV II's 56%, shots finished 10-16, expected goals 0.81 to 1.25.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, PSV II led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Helmond Sport and 2.00 for PSV II.

What was the final score of Helmond Sport vs PSV II?

Helmond Sport 2-2 PSV II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 19/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Helmond Sport vs PSV II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Helmond Sport win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Helmond Sport 45%, draw 26%, PSV II 29%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Helmond Sport) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Helmond Sport) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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